Thursday, November 10, 2011

Shortly before 9 p.m. Eastern, December Gold was closing on a 1760.50 target flagged in a tout posted earlier. Camouflageurs can attempt to intercept delicately, but please note that a breach of the support would likely consign the futures to an additional $13 of downside.

An onslaught of selling awaits the euro, according to the hourly chart displayed in the inset. With a 3-cent fall in the offing, we should look aggressively for ways to get short (and to back up the truck to buy 'em if and when the 1.3242 downside target shown in the chart is achieved).  If you call up a 5-minute chart, however, you'll notice, that as yesterday's downtrend matured, this vehicle became increasingly difficult to short, stopping out numerous point 'C' highs before resuming the downtrend. This implies that if you do any camouflage trading, you'll need to follow the rules rigorously. We'll take a closer look at the next impromptu trading session, so stay tuned. ______ UPDATE: We'll put this one on the back burner for now, since the daily ups and downs of the Eurocrisis have turned the euro's promising-looking downtrend into trendless mush.

The 99.60 target drum-rolled here earlier still looks like it can't miss, notwithstanding occasional, freakish bouts of histrionics such as we witnessed yesterday. Because any potential rally top so close to $100 is not likely to be underwatched or undertraded, we'll need to use 'camouflage' tactics deftly to get aboard a southbound express, should one materialize. Accordingly, I'll suggest setting a screen alert at 98.80 to warn when the opportunity is getting close. I've done so myself and will signal the trade in the chat room if possible. _______ UPDATE (Sunday, November 13, 10:20 p.m. EST): The futures have pulled back nearly $1.00 after topping this evening 9 cents above our 99.60 target. None of the feints lower so far have produced a legitimate, bearish impulse leg even on the 5-minute chart, but that's where I'll suggest looking if you're eager to get aboard via 'camouflage.'  Note: If you simply shorted my target with a stop-loss of at least 10 cents, I'd suggest using taking profits on half the position and tying the rest to a tight, 99.27 stop-loss.

The December contract ended the day with a downtrend in progress that projected to as low as 33.135 over the near term. However, the pattern was sufficiently clear to suggest that bottom-fishers would enjoy favorable at the 33.665 Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with that target  A stop-loss as tight as three ticks can be used there, but you'll be on your own if the order fills. A decisive breach of this support would portend more slippage to the 33.135 'D', at least.

Sellers took their best shot yesterday and still couldn't bully the December contract below Monday's 1763.30 bottom. A sign of cowardice? Perhaps, but if the good guys want to wrest control, they'll need to reverse the trend and push the futures above the 1781.20 'external' peak shown. Otherwise, look for weakness to continue to at least 1760.50, a minor Hidden Pivot that lies within a thicket of implied support from last Friday's lows. If  that target gets shredded, however, we'd be looking at a minimum 1747.10, a Hidden Pivot that looks tailor-made for camo bottom-fishing.

An 1194.50 target disseminated yesterday via an e-mail bulletin and a tout update remains my minimum downside objective at the moment.  It would be refreshing to think this is the beginning of the collapse that will usher in a new dawn for the world's financial markets, but we'll just have to wait and see how sellers behave once they've succeeded in driving this vehicle to its immediate destiny at 1194.50.  If the support is easily shattered, expect more carnage to follow. Even more immediate is the 1209.75 target of the minor pattern shown. Night owls can use this number to get short off the 5-minute chart using a pattern as subtle as the one shown. However, if you do any bottom-fishing at the supports identified above, I'd suggest using camouflage, since the selloff has quite a lot of enthusiasm driving it. Incidentally, we caught a small uptrend yesterday against the trend, since that is the way the futures were moving when we had them underneath the magnifying glass of Wednesday's tutorial session. The trade was captured on tape in real time and is accessible via a recording that will be posted shortly on the home page. _______ UPDATE (8:43 a..m. EST): Another pointless reversal, amounting to more pointless volatility in the relentless, historically unprecedented effusion of pointlessness that has come to rule the global financial system. Signs point most immediately to 1258.50, but there is no real strength here, only pointlessness, since three attempts over three hours have yet to push this whirligig above yesterday's 1246.50 'external' peak. There's also a midpoint resistance at 1246.25 -- representing double trouble -- so DaBoyz evidently are waiting for opening-minutes, headless-chicken hysteria to accomplish what mere short-covering apparently could not.   One more note: The November 16-17 Webinar will be held much earlier in

[Mining stocks got you down? Do you shake your fist at the sky whenever a $100 rally in gold causes nary a ripple in exploration shares?  If so, get ready for a major mood change, because precious-metal stocks that have languished for years are about to blast off. That’s the prediction of our savvy friend Chuck Cohen, a NYC-based financial consultant who specializes in mining issues.  He spells out the reasons for his strong optimism below.  RA] I am as frustrated as the rest of the gold true believers, because so many of us have focused on the smaller exploration shares. In fact, I guess by now that many of you have either pared down your holdings or even completely jettisoned these "losers." I see several reasons or theories why they have behaved so poorly since 2005 in spite of gold's spectacular rise. And because I believe in studying technicals visually, I am posting four charts from ancient history to help you get a longer-term perspective. I hope this proves both instructive and encouraging to you, because it has been very exasperating and even discouraging to many of us. Theory number one: The stocks will never move because the gold cycle is almost cooked. At least, that is what so many quotable market experts have postulated.. Never mind that they have never put one penny in this sector -- these gold mavens are as certain now as they were when gold was selling for $250. Instead, be safe, and buy bonds for that 3% certainty. I totally dismiss this theory, since there has probably never been a market that has been up 11 straight years and not had some kind of speculative climax. 'Too Speculative!' Theory number two:  Junior mining shares will stay basically at these levels, as they are