Friday, November 18, 2011

Did yesterday's savaging of gold and silver leave you feeling glum?  Click here for something that will cheer you from our friend Chuck Cohen, a New York-based financial consultant. Chuck is about to roll out a new line of services, but if you'd like to tune regularly to his wise thoughts on the precious metals world and the markets now, drop him an e-mail at this address:  ikiecohen@msn.com.  Note: If you had trouble opening the link above, try this one. Chrome, Firefox and Explorer are all so busy these days beating each other's brains in that they all stink. I've end-run their stupid little game with a text version of Chuck's essay that should open in any browser.  There is also a link posted in the chat room that works to open the original Microcrap Word version.

The dollar's rally continues apace. A last-ditch flight to "safety" ahead of  Europe's collapse?  Whatever the reason, a Hidden Pivot target above 81.00(!) is starting to look compelling. Check out the update to my Dollar Index tout for further details.  Please note that I've also updated my trading advisory for Apple, a key bellwether.

Try bottom-fishing at 1194.50, the clear-as-day Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown. You could use a stop-loss as tight as three ticks, but camouflage is the preferred tactic for two reasons: 1) the pattern is sufficiently clear to attract the attention of the riff-raff; and 2) the support lies just 2.00 points above a key structural low recorded on October 20. Incidentally, although a breach of the pivot and the low would have bearish implications going forward, you could still take the long side following an apparent breakdown, since it could produce a nice whipsaw to the upside.  Click here if you’d like to learn how to do these trading tricks yourself.

The downside target at 28.385, an important Hidden Pivot midpoint noted here earlier, remains my minimum downside objective for now, although the bearish pattern on the daily chart that I've used to project this tradable low allows for alternative lows at either 27.380, 27.025, or -- last-ditch, but technically unlikely -- 26.625

The bull market will face a crucial test at 1627.30, the midpoint support of the pattern shown. That is my minimum downside objective for the bear cycle begun last Tuesday from 1804.40, but you can use 1610.00 if it fails, since there are two possible 'A' starting points for the pattern (see inset). Bulls could still recover the advantage, but it would take nothing less than a quick pop to 1833.00, a benchmark referenced here earlier.  _______ UPDATE (9:31):  The overnight rally will have been little more than a cruel hoax if it can't hit 1768.10 today, fat chance. That's what it would take to undo the technical damage of yesterday's breach of key 'external' lows near 1720 recorded in the early days of November.  The nearest downside target is 1710.00, a minor midpoint pivot, but if it's breached, it's 'D' sibling at 1681.50 will be in play.

[How much longer can Europe and the U.S. postpone the global financial system’s collapse? We doubt that the chicanery that has sustained it so far will see us into the New Year. In the essay below, Rick’s Picks contributor Erich Simon sees an epiphany coming that could reshape the face of modernity.  RA] There is a beginning and end to everything, and I find it interesting that Italy and Greece, two of the oldest, are “winding down” as expressed by their financial dredge. Meanwhile, the countries to the north, whose social thrust is mediated by harsher environments, continue to service existing loans into managed growth and a semblance of balance. The debt game is all about growth into a finite environment. We are witnessing countries at the margin of both demographic and cultural surge beginning to falter. Perhaps this is indictment that nothing can last forever because the universe doesn't allow for that;  like immortality, it would never allow for “turnover” or “progress.”  How many Michelangelos before it's time to move on? No one has a better sense today that the human race has collectively extorted its environment than the countries facing debt-based Armageddon. Quality of life is diminishing right in front of our eyes. The EU is fracturing like the Hatfields and McCoys. While humans are quintessential adapters to change, which is the only thing certain about the universe, the change is ramping into the span of one generation, so that we are all, young and old, witness to a larger social awareness. A deep seated sense of loss comes from our recognition that the world of yesterday was preferable to that of today. That toying around in your living room behind a game console is a mockery of the physical adventures enjoyed by our recent past. That the