I’m establishing a tracking position for your further guidance, since yesterday’s high came within 9 cents of a 99.60 rally target that I’d promoted aggressively as a “can’t miss” top. Assuming four contracts shorted at the target and two exited at 98.44 — halfway between the high and the so-far pullback low — we are hypothetically short two contracts with an effective cost basis of 100.85. Now, you can cover one at will — the futures are currently trading for 98.31 — and tie the remaining 25% of your position to a fixed stop-loss at 99.41. Our new cost basis for the remaining contract (or 25% of the original position if more than four were bought initially), imputing paper profits so far, is 103.39 ______ UPDATE: Crude Whoopee Cushioned higher, stopping us out for a profit, on paper, of slightly less than $4,000 per contract. Now, it looks to me like the futures could reach 108.67 on this run-up, so if you apply your profits to a next trade, your bias should be bullish.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2017
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