The futures were stymied yesterday trying to reach a somewhat ambitious rally target at 1746.80 (see inset). The 1725.40 midpoint has yet to be touched, but if and when the futures push above it, the implied $21 follow-through would become an odds-on bet. _______ UPDATE (Moments later): The futures have popped $4, to $1726, in a blink. Camouflageurs should look for a point ‘B’ high that falls between 1734.10 and 1738.50 to leverage a low-risk entry, although there are some lower “external” peaks to work with as of this moment, 7:28 p.m. EST. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (10:18 a.m. EST): We initiated a four-contact long position around 8:35 a.m. EST, using a 1735.70 entry trigger. The bullish ABC pattern was ‘camo’ perfection, with three single-bar coordinates and a point ‘B’ high that fell in the middle of the topping range I’d given. Half the position was exited at its ‘p’ midpoint, 1741.80, leaving us with two contracts and a paper-profit-adjusted cost basis of 1729.60. We’ll plan on taking profits on an additional 25% of the position if and when the ‘camo’ pattern’s ‘D’ target at 1754.00 is reached. Use a 1729.50 fixed stop for now. Note: Using camouflage on the 5-minute chart, it would have been possible to get in as low as 1715.00, with an 8:05 a.m. entry and a 1726.70 minor-D target. _______ POSITION CHANGE (2:21 P.M. EST): The December contract has gone dead, so I’ll recommend rolling into the February (GCG12) contract at a current price of around 1751.00. Use a 1758.00 target to exit the third of four contracts initially bought. The two contracts we are long have an effective cost basis of 1733.00 after imputing to them the paper profit on the two contracts already exited. If we cash out the third, it will leave us with a single contract whose cost basis would be 1708.00. For now, tie the 1758.00 offer to a stop-loss, one-cancels-other, at 1733.30, basis the February.
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Tuesday, April 17, 2018
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