November 2011

CLH12 – March Crude (Last:97.82)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

We've been using a 108.67 target for the December contract since, oh...forever, suffering the tedium of an intervening dirge that has not altered my bullish outlook. Shifting to the March futures, there's a lesser target at 102.34 that may not survive this hours-old pullback, since it is just shy of invalidating the point 'C' low at 97.37. However, if the pattern survives, refreshing the bullish energy of the hourly chart and puncturing a 102.47 midpoint , we could look for more immediate upside to its sibling 'D' target, 109.65.  In any event, prospects over the next few weeks look quite bullish to me based on the breach 12 days of ago of a 102.81 peak recorded in July.  Click here if you’d like to learn more about the Hidden Pivot Method, including how to identify and trade targets such as the ones given above, and to forecast trends with bold confidence.

ESZ11 – December Mini S&P (Last:1194.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I don't trust this rally any farther than I could heave an anvil, but if you look at the chart and pretend it belongs to a trading vehicle that you like -- gold, for instance -- the short-term outlook is undeniably bullish. Assuming the 1182.50 point 'C' bottom of the pattern shown holds, the next pop should reach 1205.75, a Hidden Pivot, or perhaps a secondary target at 1208.25 if it's exceeded.  More immediately, the futures will need to get past the 1194.25 midpoint resistance tied to the lower target. Camouflageurs looking to get long won't have much to work with, since the point 'B' of any micro-impulse leg you might use to do this would have to occur at exactly 1199.75.  The chart shows why.  ______ UPDATE (9:16 a.m. EST): The 1205.75 target caught the overnight top, 1206.00, within a single tick. The futures have since receded by a 13 points to a pre-opening low of 1193.00

Doomed Rally in Stocks Could Cap Gold’s Surge

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

We have our doubts that bullion prices are about to embark on a major rally, since yesterday’s admittedly encouraging upthrust was tied to a stock-market rampage that, having occurred for all of the wrong reasons, is doomed to fail.  It was in fact a quite nasty bear squeeze that sent stocks soaring overnight. The short-covering panic was triggered by rumors -- later denied – that Italy was about to receive an $800 billion bailout.  There were also some news stories over the weekend suggesting that Americans had done their patriotic best to kick off the holiday shopping season with a bang. These two news items, even without confirmation of Italy’s rescue, caused index futures to leap wildly higher Sunday night, all but guaranteeing that the Dow Industrials would open up at least 200 points on Monday morning. This they did, achieving an intraday peak 330 points above Friday’s settlement. Would-be stock traders found themselves choking on dust Monday morning, however, since the gap-up opening left no opportunity to get onboard. Even so, via actionable advice disseminated Sunday night, Rick’s Picks subscribers could have caught a profitable ride in Comex December Gold. Here’s the trading “tout” exactly as it went out at around 8:30 p.m.: Europe's latest bailout, this time for Italy, has goosed the futures into a steep climb. Use 1712.50 as a minimum upside target for now, keeping in mind that anything above that would suggest that plenty of buying power remains to be spent.  For camouflage purposes, you can try getting long if, on the 15-minute charts, the futures create an A-B impulse leg by exceeding the 1708.90 peak from last Wednesday without taking out the more obvious one at 1710.80.  This was occurring as we went to press. ‘Camouflage’ Trading Ultimately, we exited the trade with a

A Cold Look at Gold

– Posted in: Tutorials

Bullion prices have been ratcheting lower in recent weeks, presumably bound for key midpoint supports that could conceivably fail. Although it's difficult to be disinterested in the outcome, we need to view the technical signs with coldly mechanical detachment. Indeed, our emotions will not serve us well in judging a market that has been going against us, as bullion has. With the foregoing in mind, and for better or worse, we took an especially close look at Comex Gold during this session.

Shoppers Slouch Towards Bethlehem

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Reports of shopping-related violence over Thanksgiving weekend were so appalling that one might infer that Western civilization itself had slipped yet another notch, much as it did when Paris Hilton and Kim Kardashian became world famous for sharing their fellatio techniques online. On Friday, a female shopper hell-bent on snaring a video game at a ridiculous price pepper-sprayed other bargain-bin ghouls to frighten them away. There was also a robbery-shooting in a mall parking lot, as well as numerous other incidents that, taken together, suggest that the annual kickoff to the Christmas shopping season has become as violent and rapacious as an 1880s land-rush. We wonder whether this aspect of our consumer culture would have evolved as it has if the news media had not been pitching the “Black Friday” story ad nauseum over the last ten or fifteen years. It was already a sad fact of our consumer culture that the question of whether we would have a “green” Christmas had become an obsessive concern of the news media.  Has the U.S. economy become so enfeebled and dysfunctional that it cannot survive without a Christmas-induced binge of credit card shopping?  The answer, apparently, is yes.  Meanwhile, the news media must bear much of the blame for whipping buyers into a frenzy. With the country slipping back into recession, newsroom hacks are doing everything they can to give advertisers a boost. But at what cost to our humanity? Is That Really Us? Still, it’s difficult to know for certain whether the strip-mall underclass that we read about in the newspapers is actually us.  If so, the hard times that lie just ahead are going to be even harder on us all now that the last shred of decency and politeness appear to be disappearing from public life.  Or are they?

GCZ11 – December Gold (Last:1707.90)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

We've been using an important Hidden Pivot support at 1627.30 as a minimum downside objective, and my gut feeling is that it will hold.  If not, however, we could expect the selling to continue down to at least 1580.30, the 'D" target of a lesser pattern (see inset).  Alternatively, the most bullish scenario I could foresee that is based on Hidden Pivot logic would be an upturn from anywhere north of 1645.50, the midpoint pivot of the lesser pattern. Were a rally from within a point or two of that number evolve into an impulsive thrust on the hourly chart, it would be very bullish for the near-to-intermediate term.  In any event, if you are camouflage-equipped, you should plan on bottom-fishing near 1645.50. _______ UPDATE (8:36 p.m. EST):  Europe's latest bailout, this time for Italy, has goosed the futures into a steep climb. Use 1712.50 as a minimum upside target for now, keeping in mind that anything above that would suggest that plenty of buying power remains to be spent.  For camouflage purposes, you can try getting long if, on the 15-minute charts, the futures create an A-B impulse leg by exceeding the 1708.90 peak from last Wednesday without taking out the more obvious one at 1710.80.  This was occurring as we went to press. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (9:50 a.m. EST):  Using three single-bar coordinates, respectively, at 1693.10, 1709.60 and 1703.60, entry came at  1707.80 at around 10:45 p.m. Half of the  usual four-contract position was to have been exited at 1711.90, and a third contract at 1720.10, the 'D' target of the pattern.  We are currently long a single contract with a cost basis, adjusted for theoretical gains so far, of 1686.70.  We'll swing for the fences on this one, letting it run with a fixed stop for now

DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:11517)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Although the E-Mini S&P has already breached a key midpoint support slightly, the Dow has yet to confirm.  The number we'll be monitoring is easy to remember -- 11111 -- and if it is breached decisively or on a closing basis for two consecutive days, look out below, since that would have scary implications for the broad averages. Indeed, the 'D' target corresponding to it is 9937, fully 1295 points below these levels. _______ UPDATE (9:41 a.m. EST):  A short-squeeze gap that no one will have gotten to trade has yet to achieve bullish impulsiveness even on the lowly 15-minute chart.  That would take a print at 11602.30, so let's see whether algo-driven machines can muster the neccessary enthusiasm.  If so, it will signify...nothing.

SIZ11 – December Silver (Last:30.950)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

A well-advertised correction target at 28.385 still beckons and should be used as a minimum downside target for the near term. There is a faint glimmer of encouragement in the December contract's failure on Friday to penetrate the 30.945 midpoint support of the pattern shown.  If it ultimately gives way, however, its sibling 'D' target at 28.855 would be in play.  You could bottom-fish there with risk very tightly managed, but at that point the 28.835 pivot would have become strongly magnetic. _______ UPDATE (10:24 a.m. EST): A minor-trend rally points to at least 32.440, but there is further encouragement in that it has already surpassed the 32.130 midpoint resistance of a larger pattern projecting to 33.325 (60m, A=30.650 on 11/21). For now, let's root for a push to at least 32.625, since that's what it will take to renew the bull trend on the hourly chart.

ESZ11 – December Mini S&P (Last:1179.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Friday's manic bounce, punctuated by a nasty dive into the close, was predictable when the futures breached a downside target earlier in the session by a little more than two points. The 1015.50 target given here at the time remains valid and should be used as a minimum downside objective for the near term. The dwindling herd of bulls that remains would get a reprieve on a print today at 1178.25, but that seems unlikely with Europe's hour of reckoning in the offing as borrowing rates for Italy push north of 7%.  ________ UPDATE (8:28 p.m. EST):  DaBoyz have sprung a quite nasty trap on shorts Sunday night, leveraging rumors -- later denied -- that Italy is about to be "bailed out" with an $800 billion "loan;" and perhaps a dollop of fab weekend tidings from Macy's.  The rally is most surely impulsive on the hourly chart, but check the daily chart before you get too excited.  It'll be interesting to see what happens when Spain requires the same wave of the monetary magic wand. At any rate, the futures should be presumed headed to at least 1184.50 Sunday night, a midpoint resistance associated with a minor-trend 'D target at 1198.00 (15m chart, A=1149.25 at 1:15 p.m. Friday).