To see the forest rather than the trees, I’ve taken a few steps back in the chart that accompanies today’s Silver tout. You can see for yourself how the correction since late September’s low is getting heavier with each passing week.
From the monthly archives:
November 2011
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
I’m establishing a tracking position for your further guidance, since yesterday’s high came within 9 cents of a 99.60 rally target that I’d promoted aggressively as a “can’t miss” top. Assuming four contracts shorted at the target and two exited at 98.44 — halfway between the high and the so-far pullback low — we are hypothetically short two contracts with an effective cost basis of 100.85. Now, you can cover one at will — the futures are currently trading for 98.31 — and tie the remaining 25% of your position to a fixed stop-loss at 99.41. Our new cost basis for the remaining contract (or 25% of the original position if more than four were bought initially), imputing paper profits so far, is 103.39 ______ UPDATE: Crude Whoopee Cushioned higher, stopping us out for a profit, on paper, of slightly less than $4,000 per contract. Now, it looks to me like the futures could reach 108.67 on this run-up, so if you apply your profits to a next trade, your bias should be bullish.
A bearish target posted in the chat room yesterday morning caught the intraday low by two ticks, implying that the rise and fall of the broad averages is still more or less predictable despite hysterical volatility. A key clue — useful yesterday in bullion as well — came in the form of small rallies that had failed to exceed minor peaks impulsively. Today’s all-but-certain flatulence would encounter Hidden Pivot resistance at 1260.50 if stocks move higher, or at 1242.25 if lower. _______ UPDATE (2:28 p.m. EST): The expected flatulence, which took the familiar form of a do-si-do of gratuitous ups and downs, has topped so far at 1260.25, a single tick from the bullish target noted above. If you got short, cover half now and manage the rest catch-as-catch-can.
From David P. Goldman, aka “Spengler,” comes a trenchant geopolitical analysis with some startling conclusions. Among them is a picture of Islam in decline due to precipitously falling fertility rates and a fatal clash with modernity. Europe is well on its way toward economic ruin as well, says Goldman, although the U.S., with its rapidly growing immigration population, will be in a commanding position to fulfill the demand for services and manufactured goods that an increasingly prosperous Asia, South America and India will demand. Click here for the full interview with Frontpage.
Auerbach & Grayson analyst Richard Ross sees big trouble ahead: “My intermarket analysis of the major macro components continues to suggest that the Bullish posturing in risky assets belies a macro backdrop which remains on the verge of collapse.” For the latest, 27-page report from A&G, click here.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Two Recession Benefits: Fewer Lawyers, More Farmland
by Rick Ackerman on November 16, 2011 12:01 am GMT · 46 comments
[I never imagined that this commentary would revive the inflation-vs-deflation debate, but since it has, I'll let it run for a second day. Please don't be shy if it is the good news concerning lawyers to which you would like to respond. RA]
Two wholly unexpected economic developments suggest that the Great Recession may have a silver lining. How does an America with more farmland and fewer lawyers sound? Apparently, hard times are helping to bring about both. Regarding the farmland, thousands of acres that had been purchased by speculators for residential development have fallen so steeply in price that farmers are snapping up the parcels for agricultural use. In many cases, according to a story in the Wall Street Journal, the growers are paying distress prices for land that had been bid into the ionosphere by speculators as recently as five years ago, just before the Great Recession began. To take a dramatic example, a Phoenix-area dairy farmer recently paid $8 million for a 760-acre alfalfa and cotton field that had been sold to a developer in 2005 for $40.8 million, according to the Journal. “Everything in this area is coming back into farmer’s hands,” said the buyer, one of four brothers. That’s the kind of news that could help take the sting out of high grocery prices, especially since a resurgence of family farming in the U.S. promises to reduce those prices over time. For now, though, because strong crop prices are helping to drive this healthy trend, we should perhaps keep the long-term benefits in mind when we watch the register tape unspool at the checkout counter. » Read the full article