Gold and Silver were getting pounded in the middle of the night, although index futures were down only enough to suggest that Da Dirtballs were shaking out sellers. Their by-now-familiar trick is to make certain that the contracts they’ve stolen from widows and pensioners in the wee hours can be short-squeezed higher with almost no resistance before the opening bell. The (small) gamble is that sunrise will not bring word of Europe’s demise.
COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
With the E-Mini S&P hitting our rally target in the final moments of Friday’s session, we bought four QQQ Jan 54 puts or Jan 53 puts, respectively, for 0.96 or 0.74. These are keepers, since just about anything could happen between now and January 20 when the options expire. Do nothing further for now. _______ UPDATE (11:02 a.m.EST): In the chat room a moment ago, I suggested cashing out half of the puts at current prices: 1.16 for the Jan 54s, 0.91 for the Jan 53s. That leaves us with two puts at either strike and a profit adjusted cost basis for each, respectively, of 0.76 and 0.57. Let’s spread off the risk by turning the positions in calendar spreads, shorting a December put for each Jan 54 put or Jan 53 put you currently hold. Do so in a 1:1 ratio, and shoot for putting on the spread for “even” or better. What this means is that you will short the puts for the cost basis of the puts you now hold, selling December 53 puts for 0.57 (currently trading for around 0.09) and December 54 puts for 0.76 (currently trading for around 0.18).
Although the course of action suggested above may seem very conservative, it is essential that we nail down partial profits on option positions when possible, particularly on puts that have “come in.” In the several decades that exchange-listed puts have been offered, instances in which put holders enjoyed more than three consecutive pleasurable days have been non-existent. I would dare say that at least 95 percent of all puts ever purchased “naked” have lost money for the trader.
Click here if you’d like to learn more about the Hidden Pivot Method, including how to identify and trade targets such as the ones used above, and to forecast trends with bold confidence.
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The bad guys had gold on the run Sunday night, presumably bound for the 1672.30 downside target of the pattern shown. It would take nothing less than a pop to 1733.00 overnight or Monday to put bulls back on the offensive. The bearish target can be bottom-fished — preferably with camouflage, but if you want to take the easy (but somewhat riskier) path, because the pattern has such gnarly appeal, you can bid 1672.40 with a 0.50-point stop-loss. Nimble traders can also look for a turn at 1685.70, the midpoint support of the lesser pattern shown with purple ABC coordinates. Keep in mind that ‘camo’ shorts would be aligned with some even larger downtrends that point to either 1638.00 or 1633.10. _______ UPDATE (11:43 a.m. EST): Bottom-fishing at 1672.30 could have produced a small profit, but probably no worse than a scratch when the futures subsequently headed lower. There was a 12-minute bounce of $3.40 from 1672.60 at 8:42 a.m. (3-min); and a $3.80 bounce from 1672.00 that lasted just a few minutes. Since we were using an initial stop-loss of 50 cents, the bounce we’d anticipated need only have been $1.50 to give us a reason to take a partial profit on half the position.
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Tesla got short-squeezed to within 28 cents of the 86.72 target I’d proffered early Monday morning, but a second-wind rally to 88.00 suggests it’s got eyes for 104.44, the ‘D’ target associated with the first number. It can serve as a minimum upside objective for now, implying that all trades between here and there be positioned from the long side. We’ll plan on buying weekly puts if and when the target is reached, provided it happens before Wednesday of the given week. Please note as well that a lesser Hidden Pivot at 94.19 (see inset) has the potential to stop the rally cold and can therefore be used for spec camouflage shorts.
All signs point higher at the moment, but even Google will have to top somewhere. My best-bet for a short-able apex is 929.78, the Hidden Pivot target of a well-defined ABCD on the monthly chart (see inset). You can try shorting with camouflage at that number, or at the D target (in purple) of the lesser pattern, but until then all trades should incorporate a bullish bias.
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Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held this June 5th - 6th. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Video: Goldman, MF Global and the Euro Mess
by Michael Johnston on December 12, 2011 4:47 am GMT · 1 comment
Yesterday, Rick appeared on The Keiser Report. Rick and Max discussed Goldman’s death dive and MF Global’s crimes against the markets. Rick’s segment begins 12 minutes and 55 seconds into the video.