I'm tracking the purchase of some Jan 134 calls yesterday in SPY -- a first step in legging on the 134-137-140 butterfly. SPY is falling too hard for me to be comfortable, but we'll stick with the position nonetheless, since it would give us reason to root for a rally for a rare change […] Read More
Tuesday night's ratcheting, slow-motion rally suggests DaBoyz are getting ready to pull the rug out from beneath widows and pensioners once the latter have exhausted their buying power. If and when that happens, expect the futures to fall to at least 1198.00, a Hidden Pivot support that you can buy either via camouflage or a […] Read More
With SPY approaching a 122.79 midpoint support, you could have bought January 134 calls for anywhere from 0.32 to 0.35. I'll assume four purchased for 0.34, and although that would imply a stop-loss at 0.19, we'll hold onto them for a while without a stop. Now, offer eight January 137 calls short for 0.36. As […] Read More
We hold two Jan 54 puts and two Jan 53 puts with a profit-adjusted cost basis of, respectively, 0.76 and 0.57. I’d suggested shorting December 54 and 53 monthly puts against them for the same price, but I'll now recommend instead that you short January calls three strikes below what you own for the same […] Read More
Silver is holding up a little better than gold, undoubtedly because it has not been targeted for destruction with the vengefulness that central bankers and their bullion-banker chums reserve for the latter. Regarding my forecast, there is no change in the immediate outlook. A Hidden Pivot support at 30.520 remains my minimum downside target for […] Read More
If Gold got smacked yesterday when shares were buoyant, we should expect it to fall even harder when stocks finally take account of the disaster shaping up in Europe. Yesterday's plunge seriously damaged a crucial support at 1633.10, raising the odds that the bear cycle begun in early September from $1925 will eventually fall to […] Read More
We got short at the top on Friday, but how long will Mr. Market let us enjoy the ride? Our vehicle, QQQ put options, nearly ran off the road on Tuesday when the Dow began the day with a 125-point rally. A pullback in the early going shaved that gain by two-thirds, but by early […] Read More
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A Horse in the Race
We’ll Know Soon How the Economy Is Doing
Beware the Friday Mood Swing
Going with the Flow of Seasonality
Once the Dow Hits 19489, There Are No Guarantees
A Consumer Vote of Confidence for Trump?
Some Reasons to Stay Bullish
A Holiday Note
‘Dow 20,000 Fever’ Not Far Off?
Can This Go on for Four More Years?