January 29th, 2015
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Weekly Commentary

U.S. stocks showed unbridled enthusiasm yesterday for the changing of the guard in North Korea, tacking 337 points onto the Dow Industrial Average. Could heir apparent Kim Jong Eun be the Man of Peace the world has been waiting for?  It sure looked that way on Wall Street, where a wave of optimism about something fabulous swamped sellers from the opening bell. Even if the young Kim – reportedly a huge basketball fan like his dad —  merely slows North Korea’s mischievous transfer of nuclear weapons technology to Iran’s mullahs, jihadists and terrorists around the world, it would be the best Christmas present our crisis-fatigued planet could receive. Small wonder, then, that North Koreans were sobbing in the streets as they grieved the loss of their Dear Leader.  And very dear he must have been, to judge from the tens of thousands of mourners who lined up for hours to pay their respects as Kim Jong Il lay in state, ensconced in a glass-covered coffin. Was he smiling when he died?  We couldn’t tell looking at the picture below, although we won’t be surprised if a future biographer reveals that Kim, who’s name means “regal hill,” was a world-class kibitzer in private. » Read the full article


Thought for Today

Shorting Silver?

by Rick Ackerman on December 22, 2011 5:01 am GMT · 1 comment

Shorting gold and silver via camouflage will take some getting used to, but we may as well try to make hay as long as weakness is the prevailing mood.  A subtle opportunity in Silver was developing late Wednesday night, and so I’ve sketched it out hypothetically.  If it doesn’t pan out you could also try bottom-fishing in the same vehicle at a downside Hidden Pivot I’ve provided.)  _______ UPDATE (2:27 a.m. EST):  Overnight, our respective bids in Comex Gold and Comex Silver missed buyable bottoms by a total of four ticks.  Fortunately, there will always be other opportunities.


Rick's Picks for Thursday
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ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1235.25)

by Rick Ackerman on December 22, 2011 4:34 am GMT

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GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1610.10)

by Rick Ackerman on December 22, 2011 4:44 am GMT

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SIH12 – March Silver (Last:29.250)

by Rick Ackerman on December 22, 2011 4:55 am GMT

March Silver (SIH12) price chart with targetsA bottom-fishing setup similar to the one I’ve featured in today’s gold tout is where night owls should look for action. The ‘p’ midpoint where you can attempt it lies at 29.045, and you may use either camouflage, or more dangerously a three-tick stop-loss. The futures would be signaling further distress over the near-term down to as low as 28.505 if the midpoint support is easily breached. If you’d prefer trying to short this vehicle, the 15-minute chart holds some enticing possibilities. Check out the inset if you want to see a subtle one that was developing shortly before 10 p.m. EST. _______ UPDATE (1:59 a.m. EST):  The midpoint bounce we were expecting came at 10:00 p.m. from a single tick above the 29.045 pivot, so officially –and by a hair — we did nothing. The 15-cent rally that ensued would have more than covered the three-tick stop-loss, but it was not to be. The futures subsequently relapsed to a so-far low tonight of 29.010, but there was no reason to have looked for ‘camo’ opportunities, since that number is Nowheresville relative to the 28.785 ‘D’ target tied to the one-off ‘A’ shown (though not labeled) in the chart.

$TLT – 20+ Year Treasurys (Last:136.77)

by Rick Ackerman on January 29, 2015 6:00 am GMT

I’ve been hell-of-bullish on Treasury Bonds for quite a while, but a subscriber asked me yesterday whether there was a price at which I would short them.  In fact, there are some major targets above where both T-Bond futures and this ETF vehicle would become enticing shorts. Specifically, I am using a 164^08 projection for T-Bond futures that lies 8.6% above the current 151^04; and in TLT, a 145.25 target that is 6.8% above current levels. Despite the discrepancy, I will treat each separately for trading purposes. and I’m also sticking with a 1.74% forecast for long-term interest rates. That projection is based on the long-term T-Bond chart itself, not on a derivative instrument such as TLT or TLH.  For your further trading guidance, let me repeat that I expect both TLT and TLH to pull back when the former hits 138.42, a Hidden Pivot resistance of intermediate importance that could be achieved within the next few days.

$JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:38.88)

by Rick Ackerman on January 29, 2015 5:07 am GMT

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$+CLH15 – March Crude (Last:45.28)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 5:34 am GMT

The futures are banging on a 44.12 Hidden Pivot support that they last visited on January 13. We won’t presume as to whether the support will hold this time around, but if it gives way the 41.00 target of a lesser downtrend (see inset) would be in play. Traders will have to sort out the opportunities in real time, but I’d suggest using a chart of 5-minute degree or less to generate an actionable ‘camouflage’ pattern. If you prefer the simpler method of a ‘mechanical’ entry, a short from 46.36 can be used, stop 48.15.  This is significantly more risk that we are used to taking when trading this vehicle, since swing highs and lows on the very lesser charts can usually be predicted with 10 to 20 cents.  Under the circumstances, I’d suggest holding position size down to a single contract unless you use ‘camouflage’. _______ UPDATE (1:42 p.m.): Just posted in the chat room: The recent high at 46.41 was bullishly impulsive, so shorts initiated at 46.36 as I’d advised should be tied to a short tether — i.e., a stop-loss that will leave you with at least a small profit no matter what. If you are short multiple contracts, half should be covered here for around 45.69, for a gain of about $670 per contract. If you prefer an impulsive stop, the 3-minute chart would pop you out of the trade on an uncorrected rally exceeding 46.14. _______ UPDATE (11:34 p.m.): The futures have plummeted $1.41 from within a nickel of where I’d suggested getting short.  The trade could have been worth as much $1360 per contract, but if you still hold a position I’ll recommend tying it to an impulsive stop-loss on the 5-minute chart. At the moment, that would imply stopping yourself out of the short if the futures thrust above 45.58 without correcting.  Please let me know in the chat room if you hold a position, since I can provide a tracking position for you further guidance.

$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:27.62)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 12:01 am GMT

The rally begun in late December appears to be faltering, since the last two upthrusts failed to exceed some important ‘external’ peaks.  In healthy bull markets this is what we should expect, and it was in fact a feature of GDXJ’s rally until two weeks ago. On January 13, however, the culmination of a three-day upthrust produced a high at 29.63 that failed by 16 cents to exceed mid-November’s 29.78 peak. The stock subsequently pulled back for a day to get some running room, and although the rally that ensued was good for a 15% gain, at its high it failed by a whopping 25 cents to surpass an ‘external’ high at 30.98 recorded on October 28.  This is timid action at best, and it implies that bulls will either have to pick up the pace or take the path of least resistance and head lower. Most immediately, to get back into gear buyers would need to generate an explosive impulse leg exceeding early October’s 34.82 peak. Were that to occur, it would be persuasive on the matter of whether the rally is for real or just a flash-in-the-pan.  More immediately, GDXJ looks like it will correct down to at least 26.24, a Hidden Pivot support (15-min, a=30.14 on 1/22)  that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as a nickel.

$HGH15 – March Copper (Last:2.5485)

by Rick Ackerman on January 15, 2015 4:24 am GMT

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+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher. ______ UPDATE (January 5): The stock vaulted to 0.59 Friday on volume 250% of a daily average of about 400,000 shares. _______ UPDATE (January 18, 9:57 p.m.): SNIPF got hammered at its recent high of 0.60, with more than a million shares changing hands near the top. Volume on the pullback has been relatively light, however, and I expect buyers to turn the old high into support once they push past the old high in the months ahead. The company continues to win new business with an impressive and rapidly growing list of blue-chip clients. For a summary of client names, check out their logos by clicking here.


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