U.S. stocks showed unbridled enthusiasm yesterday for the changing of the guard in North Korea, tacking 337 points onto the Dow Industrial Average. Could heir apparent Kim Jong Eun be the Man of Peace the world has been waiting for? It sure looked that way on Wall Street, where a wave of optimism about something fabulous swamped sellers from the opening bell. Even if the young Kim – reportedly a huge basketball fan like his dad — merely slows North Korea’s mischievous transfer of nuclear weapons technology to Iran’s mullahs, jihadists and terrorists around the world, it would be the best Christmas present our crisis-fatigued planet could receive. Small wonder, then, that North Koreans were sobbing in the streets as they grieved the loss of their Dear Leader. And very dear he must have been, to judge from the tens of thousands of mourners who lined up for hours to pay their respects as Kim Jong Il lay in state, ensconced in a glass-covered coffin. Was he smiling when he died? We couldn’t tell looking at the picture below, although we won’t be surprised if a future biographer reveals that Kim, who’s name means “regal hill,” was a world-class kibitzer in private. » Read the full article
Shorting gold and silver via camouflage will take some getting used to, but we may as well try to make hay as long as weakness is the prevailing mood. A subtle opportunity in Silver was developing late Wednesday night, and so I’ve sketched it out hypothetically. If it doesn’t pan out you could also try bottom-fishing in the same vehicle at a downside Hidden Pivot I’ve provided.) _______ UPDATE (2:27 a.m. EST): Overnight, our respective bids in Comex Gold and Comex Silver missed buyable bottoms by a total of four ticks. Fortunately, there will always be other opportunities.
A bottom-fishing setup similar to the one I’ve featured in today’s gold tout is where night owls should look for action. The ‘p’ midpoint where you can attempt it lies at 29.045, and you may use either camouflage, or more dangerously a three-tick stop-loss. The futures would be signaling further distress over the near-term down to as low as 28.505 if the midpoint support is easily breached. If you’d prefer trying to short this vehicle, the 15-minute chart holds some enticing possibilities. Check out the inset if you want to see a subtle one that was developing shortly before 10 p.m. EST. _______ UPDATE (1:59 a.m. EST): The midpoint bounce we were expecting came at 10:00 p.m. from a single tick above the 29.045 pivot, so officially –and by a hair — we did nothing. The 15-cent rally that ensued would have more than covered the three-tick stop-loss, but it was not to be. The futures subsequently relapsed to a so-far low tonight of 29.010, but there was no reason to have looked for ‘camo’ opportunities, since that number is Nowheresville relative to the 28.785 ‘D’ target tied to the one-off ‘A’ shown (though not labeled) in the chart.
AAPL has been on a rampage since April, gaining hundreds of billions of dollars in valuation with a run-up of more than 60%. How long can a stock that is already the most valuable in the world continue to rise vertically? Probably not forever, it can be safely inferred. It’s not as though Apple has no competitors. Indeed, the day is probably not far off when Chinese manufacturers are churning out smart phones that will do just about everything an iPhone can do, but for one tenth the price. Samsung is having troubles of its own coping with brutal competition in mobile devices — but then again, the company does not enjoy Apple’s cult status, nor the kind of caché among customers that has inspired some of them to have the Apple logo tattooed on their butts.
From a technical standpoint the stock is closing on a very compelling target at 125.87 that comes from the weekly chart (see inset). I expect this Hidden Pivot to show stopping power that will be compounded by the 126.87 target of a lesser rally pattern that is clearly discernible on the hourly chart. The implied $7+ rally is reason enough to try to get long here if you are not already on board. However, it is also reason to take profits, do covered writes against stock held in a portfolio; or more aggressively, to reverse long positions and get short. In any case, I’ll use the 126.37 midpoint of the targeted range as my minimum upside objective for the near term, to serve you in any way that suits your goals.
The chart shown has implications that may or may not prevent Japan from getting sucked into a deflationary black hole. However, the chart is quite clear on the question of whether BOJ will be successful in its longstanding goal of trashing the yen. (Answer: Yes, very.) The small rally in early October from around 0.9001 validates the pattern itself, and the decisive progress beneath that level since implies that the D target at 0.7332 is likely to be reached. This will obviously benefit Japanese exporters, but it will also put more pressure on manufacturers in the U.S. and elsewhere that compete with them. Traders should position from the short side until the target is reached, but be alert for a rally back up to the red line, since that would set up a ‘mechanical’ short to the target using a 0.9418 stop-loss. That’s far more than we would ordinarily risk, but you could cut it down to size by using the ‘camouflage’ technique. When appropriate, ask in the chat room if you’re uncertain about how to do this.
GDXJ’s ups and downs are in ‘dueling’ mode at the moment, alternating between bullish and bearish feints. It was mildly bullish when the stock slightly exceeded the 129.30 target shown on Tuesday. However, yesterday’s slide also exceeded a Hidden Pivot target — in this case a hidden support at 27.21. Taken together, the action suggests that this vehicle will spend the next few days marking time in the range 28-29. The picture would brighten on a thrust exceeding 29.20 on Thursday, since that would imply more upside to at least 31.24. Alternatively, a continuation of the downtrend past 25.67 would have equally bearish implications. ______ UPDATE (November 24, 1:54 a.m. EST): GDXJ finally budged by moving above 29.28, albeit a day later than we might have preferred. Now, if the rally holds above Friday’s 28.42 low, a modest target at 30.43 will be in play — would become an odds-on bet if and when this vehicle pushes decisively above the 29.43 midpoint resistance.
Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs. CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.
Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens. The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.
From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.