GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1595.40)

February Gold (GCG12) price chart with targetsWe already know the bad news — that the futures appear likely to fall to at least 1459.40, or to 1424.80 if any lower — so let’s shift our focus to some bullish alternatives just to keep an open mind.  For starters, the good guys could retake control of the 30-minute chart with a thrust over the next 2-3 days exceeding 1635.20, a small peak made Wednesday on the way down.  However, a more subtle signal — view it as an early alert — would be generated with a print today at 1590.20. Depending on how the rally from Thursday afternoon’s low plays out, a pullback from just above that number could create a low-risk entry spot for camouflageurs.  I’ve sketched out this possibility on the accompanying chart. _______ UPDATE (3:45 a.m. EST):  A pattern much like the one I sketched — with single-bar coordinates at points A and C — tripped an entry signal at 1588.20 at around 12:20 a.m. (A=1585.60 at 10:30 p.m., B=1592.10, and C=1586.50). Half of a four-contract position would have been exited at the 1589.80 midpoint of the pattern, and a third contract at 1593.00, the D target of the pattern. Imputing theoretical gains of 6.40 to the contract that remains yields an effective cost basis of 1581.80.  For now, use a stop-loss at 1579.70, a few ticks below the ‘d’ target of a minor, corrective ABC that was playing out at around 3:45 a.m. If the futures turn and go higher without triggering the stop, use a 3.20-trailing stop above 1601.00.  We’re not swinging for the fence on this one, but we are going for extra bases. _______ EXIT UPDATE 11:05 a.m. EST):  The futures spiked to a high of 1603.50 at 7:35 a.m., and so we exited at 1599.50 when they detumesced. The selloff came all the way down to 1585.10, so we save ourselves a pretty penny by heeding the stop. Our theoretical gain on this trade was $1770. The futures have been unable since to surpass the 1603.50 peak, but they are working on a bullish impulse leg nonetheless with potential to as high as 1604.40 (5-min, A=1585.10 at 9:40 a.m., B=1599.90). So far, the C-D segment has stalled at 1596.30, 0.70 from the 1597.00 midpoint resistance associated with 1604.