Tuesday, March 20, 2012

The chart is intended to refresh your memory concerning why crude remains a buy on weakness.  The target, basis the April futures, is 120.18, a Hidden Pivot that was first mentioned here in February as "magnetic."  That is still the case, as is the implication that prices are unlikely to reach those levels without a push from some geopolitical crisis -- presumably a pre-emptive strike against Iran.

GDXJ is closing on a 23.93 downside target first broached here a week ago when shares were trading nearly $2 higher. This Hidden Pivot support shows promise for bottom-fishing, and so we'll attempt it by buying four August 24.63 calls if and when the stock gets within 8 cents of the target. You should use a 15-cent stop-loss on the calls, since a fall to as low as 22.68 would be augured by a decisive breach of 23.93.  One more note:  I've set some chart alerts to avoid missing the trade if GDXJ should turn higher without having reached 23.93. _____ UPDATE (2:35 p.m. EDT):  This vehicle has bounced wildly from within 22 cents of the 23.93 Hidden Pivot.  Although that's not close enough to consider the target fulfilled, it will suffice to pique our interest in getting long. No opportunities to do so via camouflage have been signaled thus far, even on the one-minute chart, so we'll need to wait patiently for a chance. _______ UPDATE (March 22, 10:52 a.m.): The stock has bottomed so far today at 23.91, two cents from my target, so I'll assume 400 shares bought for 23.93.  Use a 23.79 stop-loss for now.  Also, if anyone bought calls at the low -- the August 24.63s didn't trade -- please let me know so that I can provide guidance on the options side as well. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (12:31 p.m. EDT): Sell 200 shares here, around 24.07, leaving 200 tied to 23.79 stop. I am suggesting this because a breach of this morning's low at 23.91 would put a 22.73 target in play. The stock, meanwhile, is not getting much of a bounce off a gap-down opening, and this is reason for concern.

We're looking to get short at or near 1412.75, a Hidden Pivot, either via camouflage (four contracts initially); or by way of a straight single-contract offer at 1412.50, stop 1413.75 (Please note that this is slightly higher than the number given here earlier).

Can anyone remember when Apple shares were trading for around four bucks? We can, because at the time, in 1997, we were so certain the company was headed for oblivion that we made it the subject of the weekly column we wrote for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner. Back then, it looked as though Apple had finally lost the battle for market share to Microsoft. This, despite the fact that Macs were superior to PCs in nearly every way save cost and, almost fatally, software development.  Even though Macs were the computer of choice outside of the workplace, and although students and users in creative fields were particularly loyal to the brand, by late 1997 Apple’s market share had slipped below 4 percent, down from 7 percent a year earlier. This placed the company eighth among U.S. computer manufacturers. “Think Different” was the company’s slogan then, but unless they did some out-of-the-box thinking themselves, there would be no future. Fast forward to today. Amid a swell of hubris on the announcement of a $2.65 quarterly dividend and a $10 billion stock buy-back plan, Apple shares finally cracked $600.  A $5,000 investment in 1997 would be worth $750,000 today.  We should have realized the company was bottoming when we were deluged with hate mail in the days after the Examiner column ran. Hell hath no fury, evidently, like a Mac user scorned.  While our essays ordinarily elicited no more than three or four dozen responses, this time hundreds of letters and e-mails poured in.  The milder ones merely assailed us for being blind to the Mac’s many virtues.  But quite a few implied that we’d burn in hell, or worse, for merely doubting that Apple would survive. Who could doubt they would with so many hard-core fans ready to come to