Wednesday, March 28, 2012

We're using a 1455.75 target as a lodestone for now, although yesterday's punk action should have put traders off any sentimental attachment to it. For purposes of getting long, I'll suggest using 'p' and 'd' retracement targets that look nice on the 15- or 30-minute chart.  To actually set-up a 'camo' entry trigger, however, you'll need to hunker down on the three-minute chart. Notice in the specimen shown the nice crop of 'external' peaks ready to be harvested for that purpose.

The selloff from highs achieved in the wee hours put the hourly chart in 'dueling' mode, but bulls still held an edge Tuesday night, since the rally was more impressive than the pullback that  has occurred thus far.  From here, with a prospective 'C' low at 32.480, it will take at 4.68-cent booster rally to get this vehicle off the launching pad.  Traders should look to get long on the three-minute chart (or less) if the implied entry trigger at 32.775 is hit.  That number would of course change if point 'C' doesn't survive.

I've flagged a possible bottom-fishing  trade for night owls in April (or June) Gold, based on a Hidden Pivot retracement target that is nicely situated in the middle of nowhere, just as we like 'em.  This gambit can be attempted either via 'camouflage' or with a straight bid and a stop-loss as tight as five ticks. Precise details are contained in the current tout.

Selling at the tail end of yesterdays session shaved a third off Monday's 'Nank-induced rally (not that he intended that bullion be a beneficiary of QE3 bloviations).  The weakness has continued into Tuesday night, breaching a 1677.60 midpoint support by enough to imply that its 'd' sibling at 1669.90 will be reached. Accordingly, I'll recommend 'camo' bottom-fishing on the three-minute chart or less if and when the target is closely approached. If you want to do it the easy way, but with more risk, bid 1670.10 for two contracts, stop 1669.60.  Since your initial risk is a theoretical 50 cents, you should plan on exiting half the position on a rally to 1671.60. Note:  The equivalent 'D' target for the June contract is 1672.90.  _______ UPDATE (9:34 a.m. EDT):  June Gold rallied $7 after bottoming within two ticks of the 1672.90 target. Assuming four contracts bought and a partial profit on half at 1674.40, we hold two with an effective cost basis of 1671.40.  Now, offer one to close at 1679.80, a tick below a clear target on the 3-minute chart, but make the order o-c-o with one to exit both contracts on a stop at 1673.40. (Note:  The April contract missed its target by only one tick, allowing trades to get long with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. I'll track two remaining contracts with an effective cost basis of  1668.50. This assume a partial profit taken on two at 1671.50.  Tie them to a 1670.90 stop-loss, o-c-o with an order to close out one more contract at 1677.10.) _______ FURTHER UPDATE (10:05 a.m. EDT):  A rally has taken us out of a third contract, either April or June, by exceeding their respective 'D' targets.  We now hold either a June contract with a profit-adjusted cost basis of

There was more than a little interest in this stock yesterday in the chat room, although I'm not sure why, since Apple shares can neither be bought nor shorted safely right now.  The monthly chart promises more upside to as high as 698.61, warning that we ought not attempt to intercept this blowoff, let alone do so aggressively merely because the rally is getting a little stupid.  However, if it's just bragging rights you're after, then stick with the hourly charts and use 'camo' tactics only at 'p' and 'D' pivots of single-bar patterns rooted in one-off points 'A'.  And it wouldn't hurt if the 'k-A' and 'B-C' segments looked like, if not siblings, then hillbilly cousins.  Come to think of it, the pattern shown has all of these things, so by all means test your camouflage chops at its 'D' target, 646.82. In the meantime, you could almost swear the little s.o.b. is consolidating just above that pattern's 611.11 midpoint pivot. Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot webinar and a coupon good for a $50 discount.)

[The following is a personal favorite that I re-publish from time to time. I wrote it more than ten years ago for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, but the theme is still relevant for investors who believe there's an Easy Street. RA] Talk about a sure thing! Here was the kind of inside information that one imagined tumbled from heaven into the ears of the anointed. It concerned not the stock market - we'll get to that part soon - but a pacer named Happy Yankee A that was running in the seventh race at Roosevelt Raceway outside of Philadelphia one evening nearly four decades ago. According to my source, this horse was not merely a strong bet to win, he was an absolute lock, lead-pipe cinch. This horse absolutely could not lose. What's more, the Yankster had looked so tired the last few times out that he would probably go off at fat odds. My tipster was Willie D, a storied acquaintance and unusually gifted confidence man who could loosen a mark's checkbook the way a starfish pries open a clam. Here he was on the phone one Saturday morning - probably to everyone he owed - trying to burnish his karma with an offer of timely investment advice. One seldom saw or heard from Willie D around breakfast time, since that was when he usually went to bed. But that day he had stayed awake, he said, to get the word out. He wanted to give his pals enough time to borrow, beg or steal as much cash as they could by post time, the better to wager on the seventh race. If word of Happy Yankee A's expected trip to the winner's circle had come from anyone else, I might have shrugged it off. After all, how