Thursday, April 12, 2012

The tout for June Gold is actionable, but my advice calls for using a conventional trendline as a reference point to determine when the futures have broken out and are suitable for "camouflage".  The Silver analysis remains unchanged.

Using the 180-minute chart, I've drawn a conventional trendline that can alert us to a bullish breakout before this vehicle exceeds the nearest 'external' peaks on the intraday charts. They are a hefty leap from current levels, as noted here yesterday, and that's why I'm going to suggest using the trendline to time your camouflage entry. It will come in around 1663.90 on the first bar of the day, but you'll need to draw your own line on a chart of lesser degree to estimate its slope precisely enough for 'camo' purposes. ______ UPDATE (11:53 a.m. EDT):  Much as a ballistic rally through a midpoint Hidden Pivot is especially bullish, so is one through a conventional trendline.  This one projects to at least 1683.30, implying that buyers will test supply near 1865, early April's high.  Traders will want to note that the futures at this moment are trading just a millimeter shy of  the first of some 'external' peaks made April 3 that could be useful for camouflage.

We saw signs of weakness in yesterday's rally when the futures failed to reach the 1372.00 target shown in the chart.  At the time, during the weekly tutorial session, we were looking for a real-time trade to bring some excitement to the class. It was not to be, however, since the futures provided little in the way of opportunity, even of the camouflage sort. My bias will be bearish at the outset Thursday morning, but price action was too constipated on Wednesday to promise a compelling trade set-up overnight. ________ UPDATE (11:43 a.m. EST):  With today's sharp upthrust the futures have recouped all of the losses from Tuesday's selloff. They have also generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart by exceeding two internal peaks and one small 'external' (although suspiciously not two others just above it).   To be convinced, we await further evidence of buyers' resolve.

America’s long slide into economic eclipse continued this week with the announcement that Facebook is buying Instagram for $1 billion. What?  You’ve never heard of Instagram? It’s a photo-sharing application for  iPhones that was developed by two twenty-somethings. The company has about a dozen employees, no revenues nor even a business model, so it’s safe to say that Instagram has almost zero impact on the U.S economy. Let’s hope the venture capitalists and corporate insiders who have struck it rich with this deal spend their money – all of which will come from the pockets of infinitely greater fools – wisely. We only wish that Eastman Kodak had thought of Instagram first, since all of the patents the now-defunct Rochester company holds are unlikely to fetch anything close to a billion dollars. Spreading the Wealth Meanwhile, The Boyz on Sand Hill Road can only hope that Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg continues to spread the wealth like so much litter on the sidewalk. Arguably, the billion he just dropped on Instagram is likely to reap greater returns than the hundred million dollars he donated to Newark's school system.  In any event, the acquisition, if not the price, makes sense, since photo-sharing has been a key attraction of Facebook. And let’s not overlook the fact that Zuckerberg has one less would-be competitor to worry about. Not that anyone about to reap a multibillion-dollar IPO bonanza should be worried about anything.  It is America that should be worried as the May date approaches for Facebook’s IPO, an offering expected to be worth as much as $100 billion. How, we should ask, can a company that produces absolutely nothing be worth so much? Chalk it up to the madness of crowds.  Beyond the rhetorical question, however, there is an economic one:  With its reported