Monday, April 16, 2012

ECM12 – June Euro (Last:1.3029)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Weakness Sunday night has brought the futures down to a so far low of 1.3013, exceeding a key midpoint support at 1.3043 that I view as more important than the obvious structural support of lows made, respectively, on  March 15 (1.3009) and February 16 (1.2987).  The clear implication is that the euro is bound lower, presumably to the 1.2868 target shown.

Gold testing short-term support

– Posted in: Free

Early Monday morning, June Gold was rallying, so far faintly, from within a few ticks of the 1645.10 midpoint support noted here on Friday.  If the support is breached, however, that could spell more downside over the near term to as low as 1608.90, a target noted here earlier.

GCM12 – June Gold (Last:1653.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

A fresh whiff of trouble in Europe is weighing on gold as the new week begins. The June contract looks likely to fall to at least 1641.40 in search of traction. That's the 'D' target of the pattern shown, and you can bottom-fish there using camouflage and a stop-loss that risks no more than $60 theoretical per contract initially. Be wary of a rally that stalls at or near the 1650.90 midpoint pivot, since it would take a bit more -- specifically, a print above 1655.80 -- to turn the lesser charts impulsively bullish. Finally, please note that the 1608.90 downside target of a larger pattern noted here earlier (in conjunction with a midpoint support at 1645.10)  will be in play if gold gets hit hard on Monday.  _______ UPDATE (11:19 a.m. EDT): The futures bottomed overnight at 1642.00 -- very close to our target, but not quite close enough to have gotten us long with a mechanical bid and stop.  Nor was there a camouflage buying opportunity that we would likely have used, since the only uptrending abc pattern off the low was of the "atrocity" variety, with a double point 'A' (one-minute chart, 3:06 a.m. EDT). Under the circumstances, I'll assume nothing done.