Wednesday, April 25, 2012

ESM12 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1374.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The futures were off and limping yesterday, tacking on another six points of upside not long after the regular session ended.  The move was impulsively bullish on the hourly chart, although the surge looks too powerful to get us aboard risklessly by stealth.  My hunch is that the winning entry will come at the second signaled point 'x' of the still-undetermined pattern shown. Rather be a trader than a lurker? Click here to learn how.

Apple Getting Goosed to-the-Max?

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Suh-prize, suh-prize. Someone posting in the forum said Apple was up $40 in after-hours trading, although I cannot confirm it at the moment using my deaf-dumb-blind-and-recalcitrant Tradestation application. If true, it would have no bearing on today's wait-and-see tout for the stock.  Technically speaking, the rally could augur another six weeks of false Spring for U.S. stocks.

SIK12 – May Silver (Last:30.350)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Although I still expect the May contract to carve out a potentially important low at 29.940, the 30.265 'D' target of the lesser pattern shown in the chart promises to reward bottom-fishers as well. Camouflage is suggested using a 5-minute chart or less, and you should start looking for the turn anywhere below 30.285.  Risk no more than $70 theoretical per contract on entry. I will establish a tracking position for your further guidance if at least two traders acting on my advice report fills in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (11:45 a.m. EDT): Silver has gotten obliterated today in the space of just 15 minutes, crushing the 30.265 pivot so that no camouflage entry was possible (or desirable).  The 29.940 pivot below it was probably inevitable anyway, so that's where you should look for an actual bottom. I can't confirm it at the moment, but it seems likely the hysterics are related to some statement that our factually challenged Fed chairman has uttered before some panel.

AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:560.37)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Close, but no cigar. Apple relapsed beneath Monday's lows as feared, but the move was neither bullish nor bearish because the new bottom at 555.00 only succeeded in bringing the stock even closer to my original correction target at 555.29. Camouflageurs could have staked out a long position at 562.74 (see chart), but because I hadn't suggested it, I won't be establishing a tracking position. A strong rally in the days ahead would get Apple out of the danger zone, but if my Hidden Pivot target contains sellers for only a few days, that would have very bearish implications.

Exchange Trading Out-Sleazes Carnival Midway

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

An amusing coincidence: I was posting to the Rick’s Picks forum a moment ago about how exchange trading has come to resemble a sleazy carnival operation, and lo, the E-Mini S&Ps have shot up six points in mere seconds. This was an after-hours move – the best time to stage these heists, since there is little legitimate buying or selling to get in the way of the perpetrators. I don’t wish to insult carny operators by comparing them to exchange dealers and market makers, by the way, since the guys and gals who work the midway at least come face to face with the rubes they are ripping off.  Not in the world of electronic trading, though.  The pros who are doing the fleecing operate under a veil of secrecy that can be lifted only by securities regulators or the FBI. The forum thread concered trading against phantom bids and offers that seem to be there only when you don’t need them.  Café Americain’s Jesse had posted the following at his own blog: “I am not trading nearly as frequently or aggressively as in the past because a) I am getting older b) these markets are almost ridiculous. It’s like playing cards with the little girls. If I put in an order for a few thousand shares, the liquidity from a large offered set of multiple positions evaporates instantly and I close on maybe 100 shares. If I offer to buy above market but below ask I get ten ‘friends’ appearing instantly along with my bid.” Phantom Markets Just so. This has been our experience as well, mainly in the equity option markets. On a Level 2 trading screen, one might see 5000-up bids and offers for call options that rarely trade. So who would be offering thousands of them,