Thursday, May 31, 2012

T-Bonds to the Moon!

– Posted in: Tutorials

The Dow was on its way to a 160-point loss as traders flocked to the dollar and “riskless” Treasuries, and so we took a leisurely and look at some charts that might otherwise have induced vertigo. Bellwether Apple was in state of ambivalence after having rallied from its deepest hole in years, affording us an opportunity to handicap the odds of its being in a bear market. Finally, we found new assurance that T-Bond futures are (still) on their way to the moon.

GCQ12 – August Gold (Last:1564.0)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

In another dramatic trading day, gold Wednesday turned a triple-bottom into a quadruple and then shot back up almost $39, leaving important prior highs again within striking distance.  The rally gave us the makings of a pattern which would project as high as 1592.60 if confirmed, although we would like the set-up a lot more if it had a single-bar 'C'.  The most important prior highs are at 1585.70 and 1601.40, and a move above 1601.40 would improve the odds that the support zone around 1530 will hold, after all.  A rally above the 'external' high at 1604.40, especially if it surpasses the high along the wall at 1611.10, would add to the bullishness of the picture.  But until and unless 1601.40 is taken out, we will continue to expect the 1530 support zone to be broken.  1456.40 remains our best downside projection, based on a pattern that we have been watching since last week.  (Posted by Doug “harry” McLagan)

ECM12 – June Euro (Last:1.2378)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

It looks like the dam is about to break, sending the June euro plummeting to the 1.1946 target of the pattern shown.  The good news -- for Europe, anyway, although perhaps not for long -- is that a period of respite seems likely, given the prospect of a rebound in the currency.  It's difficult to imagine what sort of headlines will drive the presumptive dead-cat bounce, although one suspects that it will not cause Greeks to dance in the streets.  Calling the turns confidently while dramatically reducing the risk of trading are easier than you might think.  Want to learn how? Click here for information concerning the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on June 6-7.

SIN12 – July Silver (Last:27.780)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Silver continues to screw the pooch, ending Wednesday's session approximately where it was trading two weeks ago.  As noted here yesterday, it would take an upthrust to 29.005 for bulls to break the stalemate.  Alternatively, a bout of weakness would only have to hit 26.195 to put into play an old target at 20.370. That's the 'D' target of the big pattern shown, and a potentially last-gasp rally to the 28.985 midpoint pivot with which it is associated should be used by camouflageurs as an opportunity to get short, provided entry risk can be held to a theoretical $70 per contract.

GOOG – Google (Last:570.88)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

GOOG appears bound at least $20 lower, to the 574.91 'D' target of the orthodox pattern shown. This stock has always been easy pickings on the 15-minute chart, so I'll suggest camouflageurs start looking there for the expected turn.  If you'd prefer to use a straight buy order, try a 574.97 bid, stop 574.84, good-till-canceled. _______ UPDATE (June 1):  The stock gapped down $10 on the opening, printing 571.79 to begin the day and negating the trade suggested above. (Side note: If you had had a straight bid in at the bell along with the stop, the orders might have been filled at the same price -- i.e., a scratch, less commissions.) With all of the small stuff used up, it's time to open our bearish imagination to the prospect of a fall to 435.90, the 'p' midpoint associated with a 'D' target at -- better sit down for this, Google fans -- 201.55.  Here are the coordinates, from the weekly chart: A=716.00 (12/28/07); B= 247.30 (11/21/08); and C=670.25

Bear-Market Reminder

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

The broad averages went against a forecast sent out Tuesday night that was based on a promising rally that had exceeded a midpoint resistance.  Going forward, we should hold this as a reminder that stocks may have entered a bear market and may no longer behave in the way to which we've become accustomed during the last three years.