Thursday, June 28, 2012

Yesterday's gratuitous ups and down did nothing to alter the tout given here yesterday, as follows: The weekly chart shows clearly what bulls are up against, the August contract having already signaled a short to 1497.40,  or to 1470.80 if any lower. Alternatively, it would take nothing less than an uncorrected rally to 1674.40 for the Good Guys to go back on the offensive.

Although lower targets remain viable, the daily chart is bullish right now, dominated by the impulse leg shown. It implies a rally to 1362.50 that would be equivalent to a Dow surge of about 250 points. First, however, buyers would need to push this vehicle past the sibling midpoint at 1332.50. If they do just a little better, getting the futures to close above that number, shorts had better dive for cover ahead of the weekend. From a trading standpoint, a buy signal has already been tripped at 1317.50.  This effectively gives camouflageurs a green light for trading the lesser charts with a bullish bias today. ______ UPDATE (10:45 a.m.  EDT):  It was little more than a week ago that I declaimed we should attempt to short every stupid rally. Now, here I am looking to milk the last ounce of upside from just such a one before we lay 'em out.  We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that at this early stage of a bear market, rallies will tend to fall shy of their targets and that the hellacious declines will come more or less out of nowhere, on gaps that will appear to have been well nigh unshortable.

Nearing week's end, with an angst-ridden Eurosummit and a momentous Supreme Court decision on Obamacare looming, some might expect the markets to be pretty wild. If so, it'll be the same the usual bunch of OPM-mongering idiots flailing around for no good reason -- other than that there is Big News on the tape.  Trading implications aside, we can all breathe a sigh of relief if the entire, putrid health care bill is flushed down the toilet.  As for Europe, it is inconceivable that anything will come from the summit that is apt to surprise anyone (other than the clowns, cheats and charlatans who move the markets these days).

Those who have witnessed the epic fire in Colorado Springs’ Waldo Canyon say it looks like something out of a disaster films. “It’s  surreal,” said Gov. John Hickenlooper in an interview at-the-scene with NBC News. Behind him, monstrous flames leaped skyward, spreading through the hills at speeds that threatened to overwhelm firefighting crews at any moment. They are tasked with triaging rescue efforts, saving homes that look savable while letting others too far gone burn to the ground. Winds as high as 65 mph made their success unpredictable, and so far the fire is only 5% contained. Some who watched from lower elevations could see their homes burning, while others could only speculate. And pray.  So far, 32,000 people have been evacuated, including students and faculty at the Air Force Academy. Some popular tourist attractions are gone, including the Flying W Ranch, where millions of visitors, including your editor, enjoyed chuckwagon dinners and cowboy music since the early 1950s. Here in Boulder, a hundred miles to the north, the so-called Flagstaff fire threatened to inundate houses and forested hillsides, although only 28 dwellings are currently under evacuation orders. Pre-evacuation notices have gone out to hundreds more residents who will at least have time to pack up essentials and valuables if their worst fears should materialize. Thundershowers and light rain on Wednesday afternoon raised the humidity slightly, but they were accompanied by lightning that sparked some small fires. Fortunately, they were quickly extinguished, but winds were expected to persist and the sun to shine on Thursday. With record-breaking 100-degree heat as a backdrop and more of the same on the way, firefighters will have their work cut out for them as the weekend approaches. Meanwhile, heroic efforts were starting to pay off in the battle to contain the High Park fire