August 2012

TYU12 – September Ten-Year Notes (Last:134^7)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The Ten-Year Treasury Note futures made a low during mid-August that was tested twice and have since rallied toward a midpoint pivot at 134^11.  Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole might well produce volatility in the Treasury markets, so it's not a good idea to work orders beforehand.  If the midpoint is surpassed, the futures will be aiming for a 'D' target only slightly below the bull-market high made in late July.  But that target, at 135^7, is not likely to be reached soon (if ever), as it appears the notes will need some more time to consolidate before making a run for it.  If the 'C' point of 133^14.5 is broken, the pattern will be cancelled and we'll have to watch for a new one to be confirmed.  (Posted by Doug “harry” McLagan)

GCZ12 – December Gold (Last:1657.80)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Thursday's gold trading gave us a compelling target at 1647.50, but there is a good chance that the bears will drive the futures below that level while Bernanke is speaking, irrespective of what he says.  Pivoteers can easily find the pattern on the hourly chart beginning at 1666.70 (the 'A' point).  Perhaps the big question is whether the sellers will be able to take out the prominent prior low at 1636.30.  Traders should try to get long if and when the futures reach an extreme short-term oversold condition during Bernanke's speech, which starts at 10:00am Eastern time.  (Posted by Doug “harry” McLagan)

DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:13001)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Yesterday's low breached the 13024 midpoint support shown by 45 points, implying more weakness is coming. If so, the 12872 'D' sibling of that Hidden Pivot is a logical place to look for a bounce. If there is none, it could presage a selling rout next week as Wall Street attempts to emerge from a summer of extraordinary tedium.  Click here for a free trial subscription that will allow you access to all features and services at Rick’s Picks, including real-time updates and a chat room that draws experienced traders from around the world 24/7.

Nitwits Will Have Friday All to Themselves

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

It seems unfair that, with a three-day holiday weekend upon us, we should have to suffer the mild disconcertment of whatever nitwit behavior the stock market exhibits when The 'Nank says whatever it is that he's going to say.  Some have predicted that traders will infer that QE3 is being promised us no matter what The 'Nank says, but because of yesterday's decline, we're not so sure.

U.S. Unprepared for Bird Flu Outbreak

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

[With the global economy being kept afloat on a sea of lies, deceptions and delusions, Rick’s Picks has tried to tell it like it is. Unfortunately, in addition to the looming financial crisis there is yet another threat that would overshadow even the collapse of the banking system. In the guest commentary below, Erich Simon asserts that the U.S. is unprepared for an outbreak of bird flu and  that many millions of lives could be lost as a result. Although we had asked Erich how one might prepare for a pandemic, his response was grimmer than we had expected. To begin with, if you think you’ll be able to safeguard yourself and family by wearing face masks and practicing “social distancing,” you may be gravely mistaken. Read on to learn why. RA] Back in 2005, following the discovery of a highly pathogenic virus that had jumped the species barrier, Ted Kopple hosted a Nightline panel of health and emergency response officials. The subject was almost too scary to talk about, but an impassioned Kopple pressed his reluctant entourage. He learned little, but the lack of details was telling. The panel agreed unanimously that the time had come to start stockpiling water, “but not yet food.”  Shortly thereafter, in April 2006, the White House called a meeting to create a national response plan. Included were public disclosure guidelines and a pre-fab sound byte for the news media: "Officials fear that bird flu could mutate into a form that becomes easily transmissible…". Today, that fear has been realized. According to recent experiments sponsored by the Atlanta Centers for Disease Control, there are only five remaining mutations along one genetic background. In layman’s terms, this means that a single, naturally occurring strain could touch off a pandemic, In the months since then, the

CLV12 – October Crude Oil (Last:96.18)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The crude oil futures sliced through our midpoint pivot and formed a new bearish pattern to go with the one we have been watching.  Yesterday's 'D' target of 93.46 remains an attractive buy level, and the new pattern gives us another well-hidden pivot at 94.05 to consider.  The new midpoint of 94.86 has not been surpassed yet, but the futures have come within five cents of it more than once.  The lower 'D' target looks like a less risky place for an order-pair entered ahead of time.  Stops should be no higher than 93.39.  Traders inclined to buy the 94.05 target should probably not have orders entered beforehand and should watch the action for signs of a reversal before buying.  (Posted by Doug “harry” McLagan)

GCZ12 – December Gold (Last:1660.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The gold market made a lower low on Wednesday and after a bounce is now targeting 1648.20.  Wednesday's decline was sharp, and it narrowly surpassed an external prior far to the left on the chart.  On Wednesday evening the market came close to the new pattern's midpoint of 1656.40, leaving traders with the decision whether to go in for "sloppy seconds", which is not our policy but which has been known to work.  The pattern's 'D' target of 1648.20 would put gold in the "window" of a large bullish pattern originating at 1592.10.  We will recommend that traders risk $50 on this one, with a buy at 1648.40 and a stop at 1647.90.  If the 'C' point of 1664.60 is revisited beforehand, cancel the orders.  (Posted by Doug “harry” McLagan)  _______ UPDATE (10:33 a.m. EDT):  Shortly after the gold pit opened, the futures rallied above our 'C' point and cancelled the pattern.  After coming back down some, we have a new 'D' target of 1650.30.  That's close enough to the round number of 1650.00 to warrant a cautious approach to buying there.  We should also start to anticipate volatility in the hours before Bernanke's speech tomorrow.

Pretending We Care about The Nank’s Stupid Speech

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Index futures were glowering with menace on the eve of The 'Nank's speech. Although it is inconceivable that he'll say anything meaningful, the markets are primed to react as though virtually anything he says will be world-shaking news.  We've never been keen on mixing it up with the contemptible idiots who move shares on these occasions, but there is nonetheless some actionable advice contained in the ES tout for those of you who'd rather not just watch.

ESU12 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1402.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

It's early Thursday morning and the futures were playing toe-sies with the 1401.25 midpoint support of the pattern shown.  It's 'D' sibling at 1386.25 will be in play as a minimum downside objective if 'p' is exceeded by perhaps 1.00-1.50 points.  The 15 points of implied downside makes this one well worth shorting, but you'll need to figure your own way in, since the stock market is apt to be squirrelly as it awaits a supposedly important speech by Helicopter Ben on Friday ahead of the three-day weekend. The 'D' target can be bottom-fished via camouflage, but the pattern looks fetching enough that you could try it with a 1386.50 bid and a stop-loss as tight as 1385.50. _______ UPDATE (August 31. 12:40 a.m. EDT): Yesterday's mincing steps lower left my forecast and advice for Thursday (see above) unchanged.  It should be interesting to see whether the Hidden Pivot at 1386.25 stops whatever hysteria The 'Nank is able to incite in its tracks.

CLV12 – October Crude Oil (Last:95.89)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Crude oil made a new recovery high on Tuesday morning and now has confirmed downside targets of 95.00 and 93.46.  After making the high, the market sold off to below the 'X' point that activates a pattern, and the midpoint at 95.00 would be well-hidden if it weren't an exact multiple of five.  Oil bulls might want to watch the action around that level rather than working orders ahead of time, but a reversal at the midpoint should not come as surprise if it happens.  Below there, the 'D' target of 93.46 is well-hidden in every way and looks like a buy.  If the 'C' point of 96.54 is touched or surpassed beforehand, we should turn our attention to larger bullish patterns.  (Posted by Doug “harry” McLagan)