Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Since we're using AAPL as a proxy for the stock market as a whole, you should check out the update to today's AAPL tout. It spells out exactly what would need to happen before we'll need to take the so-far 40-point short squeeze seriously. (And click here for a free trial subscription that will give you acccess to the Rick's Picks chat room, where some of the savviest players in the day-trading world hang out.)

Last week's high missed our 1392.50 target by 4.50 points, and although it is still valid in theory it is no longer quite so appealing as a place to try to get short. (But by all means, try it anyway -- via camouflage -- if the Hidden Pivot should be closely approached today or tomorrow.) My hunch is that the futures will grope their way lower, eventually coming down to at least the textbook 'W' correction line of the pattern shown at 1353.50. Thence we might look for the 17-point thrust that would signal a resumption of the 66-point booster-stage rally begun on July 25 from 1321.25.  That implies a modest, speculative short from these levels for day traders,  but on the 5-minute chart where you would presumably be looking for such an opportunity, you'll see that the futures were bullishly struggling early Wednesday morning to reach, even, the midpoint support. _______ UPDATE (August 2, 1:22 a.m. EDT):  Following yesterday's tiresome action, there is no change in the advice given above. Night owls looking for something to do might be able to use a pattern taking shape on the lesser charts to do some tightly-stopped bottom-fishing. On the 30-minute chart, using the coordinates A=1380.00 (1:30 pm. EDT), B=1367.75 and C=1377.50, D=1365.25 is where you could look for the bounce.  If you're looking for an easier way than camouflage, simply bid 1365.25 with a stop-loss as tight as 1364.75 (!). _______ UPDATE (10:13 a.m. EDT): The overnight trade never came, and the target itself was pre-empted anyway when speculators drove the futures into their wonted headless chicken dance Thursday morning.  As if we needed yet more proof of what a bunch of morons, mental defectives and sociopaths animate the markets each day, here, from Google news, was the ostensible reason for

Switching now to the December contract, we see that the futures pulled back far enough yesterday to be considered recharged for a bull thrust to as high as 1680.70.  That's based on C=1614.20, but if a follow-through rally indeed impends, a further pullback to the trendline shown would be a logical place for the futures to get traction.  That trendline will come in today at around 1608.50, and I'll recommend that camouflageurs try getting long there if an opportune uptrending ABC pattern materializes very near that price on the lesser charts. _______ UPDATE (August 2, 1:28 a.m. EDT):  Yesterday's downdraft penetrated the trendline cited above with a low nearly $14 beneath it, but this had no impact on a short-term bullish trend that would trip a 'buy' signal at  1611.70. That's assuming yesterday's low at 1595.00 endures as a point 'C' low (see new chart). Camouflageurs should look for a way in using the 15-minute chart or less and, if the entry trigger occurs during the regular session, a timed buy-stop.