Wednesday, September 26, 2012

GOOG – Google (Last:749.16)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The price action driving Google higher has been so powerful and relentless that I checked the weekly chart to see whether there might be something bigger pushing the stock than Hidden Pivot patterns discernible on the daily and intraday charts. Sure enough, there's a cycle begun from 289.45 (using a one-off point 'A') that projects to 773.69, a tad above the 770.28 target of a lesser pattern noted here yesterday. What the foregoing implies is that not only will there be double stopping power just above $770, but that Google could be magnetically drawn to those number before it seriously corrects. The stock has been too wild for me to suggest a specific strategy in advance (and there is the chance that an important high was seen yesterday on a key reversal from 764.89). Even so, I am proffering these numbers nonetheless so that you can use them as aggressively as you dare.

SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:39.42)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

With SLW falling hard, we remain long -- but risklessly so, since the eight December 40-45 call spreads we hold were legged on at no cost.  From a technical standpoint the stock seems likely to fall to 36.99 if it takes out D's sibling midpoint at 37.99.  Both Hidden Pivots are shown on the chart, within a pattern looks sufficiently compelling that I'll advise adding to our long position with a 37.03 bid for 400 shares, stop 36.89, day order. _______ UPDATE (September 28, 1:10 a.m. EDT):  The stock fell to 36.33 before trampolining higher, stopping us out for a loss of about $60 plus commissions. We still hold the call spreads and can simply sit tight for the time being. Because the downtrend exceeded a clear 'D' target, bulls will need to push above the recent peak at 40.34 to get out of jeopardy.

AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:665.18)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

We hold no position officially, assuming I don't hear from anyone who acquired eight Nov 730 - Oct 730 call spreads yesterday as advised.  I'd suggested an $8 limit on the order, but with Apple plummeting the calendar spread could have been purchased for less.  We'll continue to bid for the spread,  but paying 7.50 or less, only if no one reports having bought it already.  Technically speaking and from a Hidden Pivot standpoint, the low of yesterday's 18-point dive precisely achieved the 673.05 target shown.  That means that if the stock fails to reverse from here, we should infer that it's developing a magnetic affinity for a key structural low at 656.00 recorded on September 12.  _______ UPDATE: Prices reported for the call spread ranged as low as 6.80, but I'll use 7.00 as a cost basis. Apple is on thin ice and must hold above the September 12's 656.38 low to avoid creating a nasty, bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. It did so earlier this month, only to reverse and rampage higher, but a second bear trap in two weeks seems unlikely.  A bull trap instead? It hasn't happened in eons, but we should at least be prepared for it.

A Holiday Note…and Another Concerning Google

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

The weekly Hidden Pivot tutorial session has been rescheduled to Thursday morning, since I will be observing Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement, until the sun has set on Wednesday.  May all of you who observe the holiday have an easy fast.  Those who will be trading as usual should take a good look at today's Google tout, since it contains a chart and analysis that could hold very significant implications for the market as a whole. Although I've never considered GOOG to be as important a market bellwether as AAPL, it could prove to be the mine canary of the moment, since it, not Apple, has led the stock market's recent rampage.

Why We Still See Dow Soaring to 14969

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Days like yesterday could cast doubt on a prediction made here a short while ago -- that the Dow Industrials are about to embark on a 1400-point rally.  We still expect this to happen, although when we try to think it through logically it makes no sense whatsoever.  As why should it, given that the global economy is presently sustained by little more than lies, political corruption, smoke and mirrors? Even natural winners like Australia and Brazil appear to have embraced the brazen fraud of monetary stimulus. Obviously, they’re trying to gain an edge. But on whom?  An oddity is that, unlike in the late 1920s, talk of punitive tariffs has been relatively muted. Have politicians finally taken to heart the law of comparative advantage?  Probably not. All they know, assuming they know anything, is the law of the jungle. Perhaps they’re simply resigned to the fact that no nation that exports manufactured goods can ever hope to out-cheat China.  For their part, the Chinese have at least spared us the agony of having another Smoot-Hawley tariff grind its way through the D.C. sausage factory. In the meantime, and putting yesterday’s drubbing on Wall Street aside, the U.S. stock market continues to work its way higher. But 1400 points higher?  The very idea of it sent “Mega-Bear” into overdrive yesterday in the  Rick’s Picks forum. “How about screaming, short-term, WAY-overbought technicals,” he asked, “like MACD, RSI and Bollinger bands”?  To be frank, we don’t put much store in such stuff, since none of it has worked very well since this Mother of All Bear Rallies began in March 2009.  What we do trust – completely – is the bland proprietary indicators of Hidden Pivot Analysis.  They are in fact the reason why, on September 19, when the Dow Industrials blew