Friday, December 7, 2012

March Silver Worth a Play

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

March Silver's reversal yesterday was encouraging enough for us to consider getting long according to the plan outlined in today's tout.  Check out the chart that accompanies it for explicit and precise details. Night owls, please note: This opportunity could trigger before Friday's opening bell. ______ UPDATE (2:29 a.m. EST):  I've just updated the tout with some fairly esoteric notes.  Although the futures touched 33.180 more than two hours ago, no appealing 'camo' opportunities have surfaced, even on the very lesser charts. Because the futures seem heavy, and perhaps even a little nasty, I'd suggest initiating the trade only if all "camo' conditions are perfectly met.

SIH13 – March Silver (Last:33.090)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

It's bullish that the futures reversed strongly enough yesterday to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart without have reached the 32.115 downside target flagged here. Moreover, the rally is just shy of triggering a buy signal at 33.180. If that price is hit today, I'd suggest using an ABCD pattern on the one-minute chart to get aboard via camouflage.  This set-up looks quite promising in that it seems likely to lift the nimble camouflageur at least to the 'p' midpoint of the traded pattern.  Night owls will need to be alert, however, since the opportunity could come before morning. _______ UPDATE (2:20 a.m. EST): The futures first touched 33.180 exactly two hours and 42 minutes ago, but they are only now generating the first tradable 'camouflage' pattern with the potential to conform to our rules. On the three-minute chart, here are the coordinates you might use to get long: A=33.110 at 2:03 a.m.; B=33.150 at 2:12 a.m.; and C=?  So far, at exactly 2:21:46, C is a double-bar low at 33.120, making the pattern untradable if played strictly by-the-book.  If you can follow this update up to this point, you don't need me to tell you what to do. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (2:26 a.m. EST): The futures seem heavy, and not just a little nasty. Under the circumstances, you should initiate the trade using camouflage only if all of our rules are perfectly met. As of 2:51 a.m., that would imply a rally on the 3-minute that is unpaused between 31.150 and 33.205.  These prices points correspond to 'external' peaks. Click here if you want to learn more about ‘camouflage’ trading, a technique developed to reduce entry risk very significantly.

AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:529.60)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Yesterday's deftly engineered, whoopee-cushion short-squeeze will put a floor under the stock, at least for a while, but it won't change the fact that the resulting swoon breached a 521.07 midpoint support associated with a downside target at 447.55. That will be our minimum downside price objective as long as the point 'C' high of the pattern, 594.59, endures. More immediately, bulls will strengthen their hand for the short term if they can push today above 555.45, an external peak highlighted in the accompanying chart. _______ UPDATE (12:36 a.m. EST):  This the bulls failed to do, since AAPL went no higher than 555.20 before collapsing anew. _______ UPDATE (December 11, 2:01 a.m. EST):  Since Apple is overdue for a bounce, I'll suggest using the two labeled peaks to extrapolate a low-risk buy signal for camouflage entry.  Ideally, the B-C pullback would begin from a high that exceeds 534.67 by no more than a few cents. For your further guidance, I've sketched this hypothetically on the new chart._______ UPDATE (December 14, 2:57 a.m. EST): The overdue bounce we were expecting produced a B-grade trading opportunity with an A-B impulse leg that was stronger, and therefore more enticing to the herd, than we might have preferred.  I've refreshed the chart to show where entry at 'x' could have been attempted without much subsequent stress.

Wanna Bet Dow Rallies to Exactly 13259.62?

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

If you’re a market-watcher who has grown as bored as we have with this month's tedious ups-and-downs, here’s a black magic forecast for the Dow Industrials that you can track in real time to help make the time pass. Besides the entertainment value of watching this prediction play out, you’ll also be able to trade it if you desire. The predicted rally is nothing spectacular -- just a modest, 185.58-point upthrust in the Indoos.  How could we be so brashly certain that the impending surge will be exactly 185.58 points?  Hidden Pivot Analysis, is how. That’s our propietary technical method, and if you use it to analyze the chart below, the price pattern on display looks too pretty to fail, even by an inch. We employ a simple ABCD wave form to predict these moves, and although this pattern in particular looks somewhat gnarly, it becomes a perfect “ten” when subjected to just a few simple rules. Okay, it's at least conceivable the rally will miss our 13259.62 target by a hair. Even so, we can all but guarantee that the target will be reached, and without an intervening correction. Both of these outcomes are confidently predictable because of the way in which yesterday’s surge moved so easily through 13,012, a  “Hidden Pivot midpoint.”  Notice how the steep, uptrending bar circled in red smashed through this price point without pause.  According to our proprietary technical method, this kind of price action at a Hidden Pivot all but guarantees that the target with which it is associated will be reached. As for the precision of the “hit” that we are predicting with such confidence, it comes from certain features of the ABCD pattern itself that trained “Pivoteers” are taught to recognize. You Can Learn You could learn to do these tricks