Although I've drum-rolled a short in the E-Mini S&Ps, it must be noted that DIA looks unstoppable at these levels. Even so, we'll still have a compelling target to short at 140.71, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown. Based on the way buyers shredded the p midpoint at 132.57, this vehicle seems extremely likely to get there, notwithstanding the stall that I'm expecting in the S&Ps right here. If the target is achieved it would represent a 3.6% rally from current levels -- in line with the last-gasp rally that I've said could take the E-Mini as high as 1548.25. In any case, we'll keep 140.71 in mind as a place to short aggressively. We'll likely do so by legging into a put spread, or perhaps a butterfly at a much lower strike. Notice as well that any progress above the 140.71 target would encounter the presumably considerable stopping power of an even larger pattern with a D target not far above it, at 141.66. Taken together, these two clear and important Hidden Pivots suggest the long-term bull is near an end. _____ UPDATE (February 5 at 12:52 a.m. EST): The 139.89 crest of Friday's hysterical short squeeze narrowly missed our target, although 'camo' traders could have initiated the short. If you did so, please let me know in the chat room. If I hear from two or more traders, I'll establish a tracking position. _______ UPDATE (February 12 at 1:53 p.m. EST): The Diamonds are getting close to our longstanding target at 140.71, having traded as high today as 140.21. Let's stake out a low-risk short position by buying the June 130-March 130 puts spread a dozen times for 1.50. (Use the options that expire on the third Friday. Some traders have jumped the gun, but keep
Friday, January 18, 2013
Three Reasons to Get Short
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksI've drum-rolled a possible top here because there are three fairly important Hidden Pivot rally targets clustered within a 12-point range in the E-Mini S&Ps. Add in the presumably formidable round-number resistance posed by 1500, and there's a case to be made that this could be it for a bull market that has been driven by global financial fraud of epic scale. We shall see. In any case, it's worth taking a shot at getting short here, provided we stick to our exit plan.
Bull Market at a Key Choke Point
– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 FreeFasten your seat belts, since yesterday’s rally may have been the last gasp of the bull cycle begun last spring. In the E-Mini S&P, using our proprietary technical method, we’ve been expecting a stall or perhaps something worse at exactly 1482.00. Yesterday the futures got as high as 1480.50, and although that fell an inch shy of getting us short on our offer, it was close enough to satisfy the target. Rick’s Picks subscribers had been instructed not only to get short at these levels with a tight stop-loss, but to exit a long position they’d held from, effectively, 1433.50 after partial-profit taking. (Could you have done this trade and managed it yourself based on our detailed instructions? Click here and judge for yourself.) So what happens now if the futures simply blow past our target? That’s always a possibility, and it would have undeniably bullish implications going forward. But even then, we wouldn’t expect the E-Mini S&P to much exceed 1548.25, a longer-term “Hidden Pivot” 5% above these levels that looks well capable of cold-cocking the bull market begun in March of 2009. We’d short even more aggressively there than at current levels, albeit with the usual tight stop-loss. In the meantime, there is one more number that seems likely to show very precise stopping power. It lies between 1482.00 and 1500.00, and we’ve told subscribers to re-short there with a micro-tight stop-loss or via a “camouflage” trading technique designed to hold risk to a bare minimum. If you’re interested in the details, click here for a no-risk trial subscription to Rick’s Picks. You’ll get access not only to our detailed daily trading “touts” and archives, but to a 24/7 chat room that draws experienced traders from around the world.
