As long as we're talking about Dow 14969 today, we might as well reconsider the case for Goldman getting to 205.09. If I'd been a true believer when I first broached that target, I'd have suggested buying Thursday's dip to a 144.68 midpoint pivot that now looks like support. Maybe we'll get lucky and GS will relapse one more time to the red line. If not, we can try to get aboard at higher levels, or to buy the July 195-200-205 butterfly for cheap. It closed yesterday for 0.18, but since the best we could hope for on the exit would be around 1.50-2.00, I'd suggest paying no more than 0.05. You can buy the spread 50 times at that price, but if you can leg it on for nothing, I'd shoot for 250 spreads. Stay tuned in the chat room, since I'll try to signal any opportunities that would enable us to do this for nothing in smaller pieces. _______ UPDATE (March 18, 12:44 p.m. EDT): Let's acquire some bullish butterflies in Goldman, since we've got a $205 rally target to work with and a criminally rigged options market that begs to be chastised. We'll leg into this position, first by bidding 0.12 for 20 July 195 calls. Since DaSleazeballs are showing a 0.08 bid, we'll be improving on it by 50%. We'll leave the bid in until they cut our market with a higher bid. Un the end, we are shooting to buy the July 195-200-205 call butterfly twenty times for free or perhaps a small credit. It would leave us long 20 July 195s and 205s, and short 40 July 200s. The current market for it is -0.27 bid (i.e., a credit), 0.20 asked. If you put up a 0.15 bid, you could probably "buy it now,"
Friday, March 8, 2013
DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:14329.49)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksIt was during last night's Hidden Pivot Webinar that I realized how easy it would be for the Dow to fulfill a 14969 target that I aired here a while back, albeit without much conviction. My reason for considering the A-B impulse leg shown as 'uncorrected' are too technical to get into right now, but the bottom line is that the power of this thrust implies that the current, follow-through leg should be given every benefit of the doubt. Moreover, a pullback to the 13502 midpoint pivot should be regarded as a back-up-the-truck buying opportunity. Click here to sample Rick's touts and trading room free for a week.
Dusting Off Dow 14969 Target
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksMy gut and my brain are pulling in opposite directions right now with respect to my outlook for stocks, but there's no denying that a 14969 rally target for the Dow Industrials that I disseminated a while back is looking increasingly likely to be achieved. See the INDU tout and chart for a compelling picture. We'll monitor price activity for a signs of a top at current levels nonetheless, since we've got a target for the S&P 500 that seems all but certain to show some stopping power.
Feeling Flush with Cash?
– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 FreeHere’s a Wall Street Journal headline to brighten your day: Freshly Flush, the Consumer Is Back. A little premature, wouldn’t you say? Are you feeling flush? That’s what we thought. Of course, this kind of hubris is always going to go down a lot easier with the Dow Industrial Average trading at all-time highs, as it currently is. But isn’t this the way major tops are supposed to feel – i.e., with a bullish drumbeat from the news media so shrill and persistent that we skeptics are about to bleed from the ears? We’ll give the Journal credit, though, for showing a little more restraint than “Easy Al” Greenspan did when, stumping for home equity loans, he repeatedly described inflated real estate values as “wealth.” The Journal avoided repeating this egregious falsehood by noting with a touch of reserve that Americans are “feeling” wealthier because of rising home values and share prices. No matter that stocks are being kept buoyant by an unprecedented tide of easy money, or that the rise in home prices has been slight, or that the dead-cat bounce in real estate is occurring because cheap loans for poorly qualified buyers have been resurrected with a vengeance by GSEs whose swagger has unsurprisingly returned. And it hasn’t exactly hurt our collective “feelings” of wealth that the Federal Reserve has been warehousing virtual mountains of shoddy paper for U.S. banks. The pretense that the U.S. banking system is somehow healthy at a time when the central bank itself is swollen to the bursting point with toxic debt is the folly of this age. Stupid and crazy as the idea is, it got a big boost yesterday with the announcement that 17 of America’s 18 largest banks had passed a “stress test” conducted by the Federal Reserve. This ceremonial
