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GOOG – Google (Last:781.01)


Keep the 801.13 midpoint support shown in mind if you’re keen on bottom-fishing. Since it closely coincides with a structural low at 801.47 that is likely to draw some eyeballs, camouflage is essential.  Because any slippage below 801.47 will be read by our competition as a breakdown, camouflage tactics are all but certain to yield an edge in helping us distinguish between a fake and a true breakdown. _______ UPDATE (9:35 p.m. EDT):  The stock gapped $11 lower on the opening bar, to 801.50, then spent the rest of the day pounding on our 801.13 pivot without breaching it.  The actual low was 801.33, but there was little point in carrying a long position overnight.  With GOOG so precariously perched at the close, it’d be like rolling dice._______ UPDATE (March 31, 11:25 p.m. EDT):  The stock fell over the edge on Thursday and now looks bound for the 781.02 ‘D’ target associated with our midpoint support. Because that would exceed February 26’s structural low at 784.40 (see inset, a new chart), possibly freaking out our competition, ‘D’ can be bought aggressively via camouflage or with a straight bid and a stop-loss as tight as 17 cents. _______ UPDATE (April 3, 2:37 a.m. EDT):  We’ll back away for now, since yesterday’s short-squeeze iced our bargain-basement bid. The stock had gone no lower than 793.25. ______ UPDATE (April 5): Let’s try something else: Bottom-fish the 788.85 target shown (a new chart).  Camouflage is the method of choice here, but if you’re feeling lazy, a 788.91 bid for 200 shares will suffice, stop 788.69. _______ UPDATE (12:02 p.m. EDT): The stock is in worse shape than we’d imagined, opening on a gap below 788.85, so we did nothing on the order. GOOG’s daily chart is now impulsively bearish and deserving of our close attention when it attempts a follow-through leg to the downside.  When that happens, if it fails to get a nice bounce off the HP midpoint support, it would be the most negative sign we’ve seen in a long while.

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