GOOG – Google (Last:830.86)

EDT

Google has only [seven] more trading dates to hit the $850 sweet spot of four March 840-850-860 butterflies that we hold for just 0.20 each. Even a one-day downdraft will squash our odds of profiting, but because we’ve got so little at stake we can afford to let it run.  The ‘fly is currently quoted on a bid/offer of around 0.30/1.40, which means we’d have to work pretty hard to come away with the $480 profit we’d reap exiting all three sides at the best possible prices (i.e., “on the offer”). However, a mere $15-$20 rally by week’s end could make the spread an easy sale for perhaps $2.50 or more, so we’ll give it a few more days.  We should take encouragement from how well the stock moved yesterday in a market that felt heavy with indecision, as well as from the 848.29 rally target shown in the chart. ______ UPDATE (1:52 p.m. EST):  Exit one spread or 25% of the position for 1.20 or better.  A chat-roomer just reported having done so (for $1.30) to cover the cost of the remaining position, and it’s a good idea.   Click here if you want to join in the fun the next time we try something like this. _______ UPDATE (March 5, 8:49 p.m.): I’ve reproduced a snapshot of an option calculator that can help you determine ‘fair value’ for the butterfly with Google trading today anywhere between 838.30 and 852.30. For instance, if the stock is at 846.30, the March 840 call we’re long would be worth 13.65; the two March 850s we are short, 8.51; and the March 860 we are long, 4.88, yielding a butterfly theoretical value of 1.51. _______ UPDATE (March 11, 1:55 a.m. EST):  We’ll play this one down to the wire and for all the marbles, since it is only with GOOG trading slightly above 850 around midweek where our payoff will push above the 15-to-1 odds we so richly deserve.

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