Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Three Balls for a Quarter

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Its 3:30 a.m. in New York and, as is customary at this hour, DaBoyz are holding their cards close to their vests.  Gold is steady after yesterday's unaccustomed gain, and index futures are glowering with the kind of menace that makes Vlad the Impaler seem cuddly in comparison. Step right up, folks! Three balls for a quarter if you want to try to knock the sinister smile off his face.

NEM – Newmont Mining (Last:40.01)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Newmont has gained nearly 7% since Thursday, but don't get your hopes too high that it will somehow avoid diving to the 34.68 target we've been using. Notice how buyers chickened out at the peak of yesterday's would-be moon shot.  One more nickel would have gotten them past the 40.68 'external' peak that I've labeled, refreshing the bullish impulsiveness of the lesser charts. Alas, now they are in a duel with bears, and although the burden of proof rests with the latter at the  moment, the bulls have ceded much of their edge.

GCM13 – June Gold (Last:1562.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The futures exceeded our rally target by 3.00 points yesterday, implying that still higher prices are likely over the near term. The pattern shown is not especially compelling, but it's all we've got at the moment to project a new target. It lies at 1600.40, or perhaps 1603.60 if any higher.  Camouflage traders looking for friendly entry points might want to note that the respective midpoints of these D targets lie at 1592.10 and 1593.70.  Note as well that the higher of the two Ds will not quite see the futures above a key peak at 1602.80 whose breach would be needed to clinch a new impulse leg. _______ UPDATE (2:32 p.m. EDT): The rally sputtered out with a 1588.50 high overnight, opening the floodgate to sellers supposedly reacting to a negative outlook on gold from Goldman.  We know better, though. The futures are simply working their way down to a 1487.90 target that has obtained for some time. We should of course keep an open mind to the possibility of a real reversal at any point along the way. But let's not get too enthusiastic unless it's sufficient to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. At the moment, that would require a ballistic upthrust that is uncorrected between 1590.20 and 1604.40 (see chart, a new one.)

ESM13 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1563.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Check out the chart to refamiliarize yourself with the 1594.25 target we've been using as a minimum upside objective. Given Friday's nasty swoon, the red-line midpoint at 1562.00, is not exactly a point of consolidation, but yesterday's spike through it implies nonetheless that our target is still a good bet to be reached, and soon. Camouflageurs should play only from the long side, looking for impulsive patterns that meet our simple criteria on charts of five-minute degree or less. As of around 2:25 a.m. EDT, a minor bullish pattern on the 10-minute pointed to 1574.00 thus: A=1566.00 (4/9 at 11:20 a.m.); B=1569.00  (3:00 p.m.); and C=1561.00 (9:10 p.m.).  X entry at 1564.25 (not a camo x, incidentally, but one of higher degree) is a single tick from being hit, and once this has occurred, you should do your camo-hunting on charts of lesser degree.  Click here for details about the upcoming seminar on 'Camouflage Trading', plus a $50 discount.

Fine Shadings of Internal and External Peaks

– Posted in: Tutorials

We covered a lot of ground during this session, including some finely nuanced distinctions between internal and external peaks. Camouflage trading received the most emphasis, as is often the case these days, and although we were unable to detect any good entry signals in real time, we concluded the session with several trading ideas that had the potential to bear fruit before the day ended. ____________________________________________________________________