Thursday, April 11, 2013

NGM13 – June NatGas (Last:4.145)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Price action has been so frazzled lately that I zoomed out rather than in to find a chart with the information we need to make clear sense of this vehicle.  With the weekly chart as our perspective, we can see that the bullish impulsiveness of the thrust from February's lows could wax even more impressive if the rally keeps going, exceeding the 'look-to-the-left' peak at 4.345 before taking a breather. Regardless, the futures are going to be a fetching buy on any significant pullback. Camouflageurs can start looking for a way in at these levels, however, and I'd suggest using charts of 10-minute degree or less to find your spot.

GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:14.29)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Considering the way Comex gold got pounded yesterday, this stock's 59-cent loss could have been worse. It is for that reason that I'm going to recommend bottom-fishing at the 14.54 target shown, a Hidden Pivot midpoint support.  Specifically, you should use a 14.57 bid, stop 14.49, for 400 shares.  Camouflage is also okay if you know what you're doing, but I'll track a position for your further guidance if buyers report getting filled either way. Please note that a bigger picture still suggests that this vehicle will fall to 13.15 before it gets good traction. _______ UPDATE (10:20 a.m. EDT): We were briefly in and out of this dog as it made a game attempt to crush the old multiyear low at 14.24 recorded a week ago. Our loss was $32 plus commissions.  13.15, here we come!  We'll be bidding down there as well, for something like salvage value.

GCM13 – June Gold (Last:1557.40)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

In the course of an interview I did yesterday with Al Korelin, I noticed something about June Gold's daily chart that I hadn't noticed before that accounts for this bounce from the recent low at 1539.40.  Turns out the low is just 1.40 from a bearish target that has been more than 13 months in coming. It shouldawouldacoulda been a great place to look for a 'camo' trade, since the low print would have been read as a breakdown beneath last May's key low  at 1545.00. Considering the extent that the futures would have been unburdened of bullish hopes and greed thereupon, the bounce is so far worrisomely lacking in vigor. Under the circumstances, a longstanding correction target at 1487.90 should continue to temper our enthusiasm whenever gold rallies.  That's a back-up-the-truck number as far as I'm concerned, but with risk very tightly controlled as is our habit.  Click here to sample Rick's daily touts and 24/7 chat room free for a week.

ESM13 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1585.75)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I've deliberately underpublicized a major rally target at 1594.25 so that it has a better chance of working.  We examined the pattern that produced the target during yesterday's weekly tutorial session for Hidden Pivot Webinar grads and found that it has aged without losing any sex appeal. Notice in the chart that the k-A and B-C segments have a strong sibling resemblance. Another thing to like is that the elongated C-D segment will have obscured the idiosyncratic perfection of the entire pattern from the eyes of Gartley-pattern chartists and others. Pretty as this picture is, I strongly doubt that the futures will get by it without providing a tradable pullback.  We'll attempt the short via camouflage even though I expect the top to occur within 1.00 point of where it should. The task will be made easier if we work this opportunity together, so I would ask Pivoteers who have been dogtailing the E-Mini S&Ps in the chat room lately to signal the camo short in timely fashion if it turns up on the very lesser intraday charts.  I'll be there myself to help make sure we get this one right, since it's the best shorting opportunity we've seen since late February. _______ UPDATE (April 12, 1:36 a.m. EDT): I opened an online trading session for 90 minutes yesterday so that we might look together for the opportunity detailed above.  At this point, shorts should be attempted only via camouflage for two reasons: 1) the futures have traded close enough to the target that it has effectively been fulfilled; and 2) I still expect a tradable top to occur at or very near 1594.25.  Using camouflage, we can avoid getting impaled if the futures exceed the target, but more to the point, we can take advantage of any subtle opportunities

An Ominous Divergence Grows

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

We used to pay closer attention to the charts of Google, Apple, Amazon and other world-beaters because for years their shares led the stock market higher. No longer, though. The charts below show how the Dow Industrial Average has left the formerly unstoppable Nasdaq Index choking on dust. Few would have imagined that Wall Street could go on a bullish rampage without the participation of stocks that represent the very best that America has to offer. And yet, that is exactly what has occurred. The “Naz” heavyweights have stalled or fallen while the Dow’s rally has gone vertical. The first inkling that such a startling divergence was possible was the Dow’s resilience in the face of a devastating bear market in Apple that has reduced its share price by 40% since September. This represents an enormous loss to investors, most of them institutional, since Apple was the most valuable company in the world before it fell from grace.  But investors simply shrugged off the loss, throwing Apple to the wolves before training their still-considerable buying power on the 30 Dow stocks.  This damn-the-torpedoes attitude has continued even amidst concerns that Q1 earnings about to be reported will be less than stellar.  Under the circumstances, the bold stewards of Other People’s Money would seem to have abandoned the pretense that earnings even matter. ‘Don’t Fight the Fed!’ Undoubtedly, what has made them so cocksure is the prospect of more Fed easing until…forever?  “Don’t fight the Fed!” is one of the most time-honored rules in the investment world. With the Fed easing more aggressively than at any other time in its ruinous history, going with the flow is not exactly rocket science.  The result is that every Dow stock except Caterpillar and Exxon is showing a gain for the year.  Most are