Thursday, April 18, 2013

The latest phase of HUI's collapse, now in its eighth month, has breached the lowest Hidden Pivot target that we could have projected using major patterns from the weekly chart. What now?  Shifting to a lesser-pattern 'extension' discernible within the C-D leg of the larger pattern, we find a 246.20 target not far beneath the so-far bear market low of 256.20. Camouflageurs take note: this looks like a high-odds spot for a tradable turn.

Copper's nasty slide has been getting a lot of ink lately, since it is viewed as a harbinger of a weakening economy.  From  a technical standpoint, the futures decisive breach of a midpoint support that had held for 17 months augurs more downside over the near term to at least 2.7780, equivalent to an 11% fall.  If this Hidden Pivot 'D' target were to give way, however, we'd probably be looking at a second wave of selling down to 2.4435.  Camo traders should position from the short side using charts of 15-minute degree or less to identify promising entry points. The hourly chart is where you should look to assess trend strength and to pinpoint reversals. At the moment, it would take an upthrust exceeding 3.2565 to turn the 60-minute chart bullish. _______ UPDATE (April 28, 10:34 p.m. EDT):  Copper has bounced to 3.2890 off a 3.0684 low that left my downside target unsatisfied. The target remains compelling, and so we should be skeptical of this rally. It has achieved impulsive status on the 240-minute chart nonetheless, but just a little more weakness, exceeding a 3.1485 low recorded last Wednesday, would turn the 240-minute chart into a duel between bulls and bears (see inset, a fresh chart).

A bear market target at 394.93 first broached here months ago is within inches of being achieved following yesterday's drubbing. The actual low was 398.11 -- close enough to our target to be considered achieved.  Accordingly, camouflageurs can start looking for opportunities on charts of 15-minute degree or less. I'd encourage you to act aggressively if there emerges a perfect trade set-up as defined by our rules. Please let me know in the chat room if you fill, since I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance if two or more traders report getting aboard. Please note that I am revising the official target to 395.27, based on the chart shown. The change does not affect the advice above.