Thursday, May 2, 2013

30-Second Price Bars: Who Knew?

– Posted in: Tutorials

Comex Gold and the E-Mini S&Ps had already made their moves, and try as we did to force a trade, the picking were just too slim. This held lessons for us nonetheless, and it also pushed us onto the 30-second chart, a hitherto unexploited Tradestation feature that promises new vistas of opportunity. Be sure to check out the final ten minutes of this session, since we found a trade in Google that paid off at terrific odds less than an hour later.

ESM13 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1581.75)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

It's early Thursday morning and DaScumballs have managed to rally this hoax moderately, presumably to put pensioners, orphans and widows they intend to fleece at ease.  The effort is not at all impressive, although it would become bullishly impulsive on the lowly 3-minute chart with a relatively modest thrust exceeding  1584.25 (see inset).  A larger pattern on the 15-minute chart has developed several bearish ABCs, but their promise, such as it is, is diminished by tonight's lazy waft higher.

GCM13 – June Gold (Last:1452.80)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

In an interview I did yesterday with Al Korelin, I identified 1350.50 as a minimum downside target for the near term. It is the 'p' midpoint support of the pattern shown, and if it is decisively breached we could be looking at 1216.20.  Regardless, I would suggest aggressive bottom-fishing either via camouflage or with a very tight stop if the higher number is reached. (FYI: I expect a very precise hit.)  Since we never want to chisel a forecast in stone, leave room for a bullish outcome, predicated on an uncorrected upthrust exceeding 1495.00. That would create a robustly bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart with follow-through potential to as high as 1520.50 over the near term.  _______ UPDATE (10:55 a.m. EDT): Despite today's moderate strength, I'm still calling for a correction down to 1350.50, basis June Comex. However, today's rally is encouraging, and if the futures were to hit 1495.10, it would generate the most bullish signal we've seen in quite a while, implying minimum, further upside to 1520 shortly thereafter.  Today, the best buying opportunity remaining would come on a 'b-c' pullback (basis (June Comex) from anywhere between 1477.50 and 1484.80. The intraday high so far is 1473.40 -- not quite sufficient to generate a bullish 'impulse leg' on the hourly chart.

Supposed Change in Fed Policy Is Just Comic Relief

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Comic relief came yesterday in the form of a supposed signal from the Federal Reserve that, for the first time, it could "increase or reduce" stimulus. For now, of course, they are standing pat. We're not sure which morons' expectations this announcement was intended to manage, but it's the biggest hoot since Obama drew a red line in the sand to determine when to go after Syria for using chemical weapons.  For Joe Sixpack and the average investor, however, we would suggest tuning out every lying word that emerges from Helicopter Ben's lips, since inferring that those words actually mean something can only screw up your head.

GOOG – Google (Last:830.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

I'd almost forgotten how fun and easy it is to trade stocks, as opposed to futures. Those who trade the former are as dumb as fence posts compared to the nasty talent that's cruising the commodity markets 24/7.  The latter held little promise yesterday, and so, looking for opportunity, we took a hard look at Google during the weekly tutorial session. A clear-as-day corrective pattern popped up on the 15-minute chart, and so I advised bottom-fishing, provide the target was reached before the final hour. In the actual event, the stock fell nearly $5, bottoming within 37 cents of the 816.73 target. During the session, and in the chat room shortly thereafter, I advised buying May 3 (i.e., expiring this Friday) calls at the 825 strike if and when the target was hit. Now, because someone in the room reported a fill at 1.75 , I am establishing tracking guidance with this tout.  Google rallied nearly $5 off the low, and the calls closed @ 2.40, up 50% from their intraday low of 1.60.  Ideally, half the position should have been taken off before the close.  However, because the chat-roomer who bought them didn't realize he'd been filled until after the close, I'm treating the position as though we still hold four calls.  Accordingly, I'll recommend selling half of them on the opening while offering a third for 2.70. The last we'll continue to hold for as long as possible, swinging for a home run. These calls will be shedding time premium rapidly, since their remaining lifespan is shorter than a mayfly's. However, we are compensated for the time-premium risk by Google's ability to make them $10 in-the-money with one gigantic leap. If that or something like it happens, I'll suggest that you take the money and run without waiting