Friday, May 31, 2013

NGN13 – July NatGas (Last:4.004)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

If you've eagerly awaited a good buying opportunity in this vehicle, there are two places you could try, both of them Hidden Pivot supports that have been a month in coming.  The first lies at 3.876, and it should be bought using camouflage on a chart of 15-minute degree or less.  The second is 3.792, and because it represents the maximum extension of the pattern, it can be bought with a stop-loss as tight as you can abide.  Please let me know in the chat room if you fill so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (June 5):  Although there are lower targets outstanding, camouflage traders shouldn't pass up the easy buying opportunity that could follow a b-c pullback from in-between any of the peaks labeled in this new chart.

ESM13 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1654.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Bears' best efforts yesterday weren't sufficient to push this vehicle remotely near a 1623.75 downside target I'd proffered. Now let's see if bulls have the gumption to forge higher, first by pushing past the 1660.75 'p' midpoint pivot shown. Long entry has been triggered Thursday night at 1655.75, and so the pattern is fair game for camouflageurs looking for a low-risk buy-in. DaBoyz aren't likely to goose the rally to D=1670.50 overnight, although it looks like a pretty good bet to reach p=1660.75.  Thereafter, traders might have to abide a second (i.e., lower) point 'C' before this hoax can find purchase on the morning's news.

AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:451.59)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

I'm not completely sold on Apple's supposed rise from the ashes, mainly because the initial phase of the stock's would-be resurrection failed to get past the 469.95 peak of March 25 (see inset).  In technical terms, this means that the rally was not bullishly impulsive on the daily chart.  And while it is most surely impulsive on the 'hourly,' we should expect more from a stock that is attempting to emerge from a nasty bear market.  That said, we can nevertheless extrapolate a serviceable rally target a 492.15 from the pattern shown, even if we must bend the rules slightly to call the 392.50 point 'A' a true low.  The midpoint 'p' of the pattern lies at 455.52, a hair above yesterday's high, and AAPL's ability to punch through it -- or not -- should inform our willingness to believe that the current rally is the beginning of a new bull market. Regardless, the stock is a solid bull trade once above 455.52, and we should continue to go with the bullish flow as long as each new thrust pushes past a prior, significant peak.

A Riskless Shot at $16,000 in Goldman

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

We often tell subscribers to leave options trading to the experts, since, for retail customers, the game is almost as tough to beat as betting on horses.  But not quite.  We’ve been at it for 40 years ourselves, and the knowledge we’ve accumulated over that time, including a dozen years making markets on the floor of the Pacific Exchange, has helped push us just past the 50 yard line that divides winners from losers.  Which is to say, we come to each trade with a positive expectation.  A case in point is a bull play in Goldman Sachs that we recommended nearly three months ago.  Back in March, we reckoned that if the stock market were to go bonkers, as it indeed has, then Goldman would almost surely be one of the stocks leading the charge. This idea proved flat-out wrong, but as you’re about to see, not fatal. We had told subscribers to buy far-out-of-the-money Goldman calls to leverage the scenario, but because we were attempting to buy them at fire-sale prices, the options stayed just out of reach. Until one day, that is, when the stock got sacked. That was on April 1, and when the dust had settled, we were able to write as follows:  “With Goldman shares at a precipice, the July 195 calls we’ve been attempting to steal came cascading down on us yesterday like summer rain.  I’ll treat the order to buy 20 of them @ 0.15 as filled, but as long as DaBoyz are jumping out of windows, let’s try to suck up another dozen, bidding 0.12 for them, good-till-canceled.  Be warned that I am suggesting this because it looks like the stock will fall a further $3, to at least 143.58 (see inset), before it can turn around.” [This is in fact