Bull Market Getting a Little Freakish

[Buyers on Wednesday made short work of the 1647 target noted below, pushing the futures as high as 1660. This implies that a further rally of 130 points — equivalent to more than 1000 Dow points — is likely gestating. RA]

The 1647.50 rally target shown in the chart below looked until recently like a good bet to contain the bullish stampede, at least for a while. As of early Wednesday morning, however, it seemed to be giving way. Even though it has been exceeded so far by just 2.50 points, that’s enough to imply that the resistance has been fatally compromised, given the clarity of the technical pattern that produced it. If this “Hidden Pivot” is in fact easily brushed aside, it would be yet one more casualty of a bull market that in its fifth year is growing more relentless by the day.

And freakish. Yesterday’s rally marked the 18th straight week that the Dow has closed higher on a Tuesday. Market watchers have been trying to make sense of this, since nothing remotely like it has ever happened before. But they might as well be trying to explain Stonehenge. The mere fact that betting that stocks will finish higher on a Tuesday has become all but a sure thing is reason enough for it not to happen again.  That’s because “knowing” what the Dow will do on a given Tuesday would make it possible for “everyone” to make money on the same side of the market.  That cannot be, of course. And yet, who would dare fade next Tuesday’s action, assuming it’s a rally?

Another 1000-Pointer?

And now, what if buyers simply blow past the 1647.50 target shown above?  According to our technical runes, that would put in play a 1779.75 target of higher degree whose attainment would be equivalent to a 1000-point rally in the Dow. For a graphical explanation, check  out the “touts” section of Rick’s Picks today. If you don’t subscribe but would like to try a risk-free trial for a week, click here.  You’ll get access to all of our features and services, including a 24/7 chat room that draws veteran traders from around the world.

  • Marc Authier May 17, 2013, 8:04 pm

    Not freakish, nauseaus. What market anyways. It is all bull****. Crooked, criminal casino run by terrorist tyrannical mass murdering psychopathic banksters. That is your market.

  • Rich May 17, 2013, 10:19 am

    Friends, this is one tired market:

    EOD Thurs 16 May 2013~
    $BPGDM 0% Gold Miners >5000% = Bottom for Gold Mining Stocks
    96.67% Dow Stocks = Top
    2033.83 BTK -1.98% PPO rolling over after 2068.43 Top
    158.50 Paper -2.5% engulfing bear candle below 159.99 Top
    3.912 NatGas -2.76% at 50 DMA with bottoming daily PPO = Buy to 6.5 Target
    246.31 Networks +2.73% Island exhaustion gap Top
    74422 NYAD -327.54% = Top
    0.35 NYMO -98.18% Confirms Top
    26.53 Russia -1.99% with +Weekly PPO Crossover = Buy
    $UST1M 0 One Month T Bill -100% = Risk Off

  • Seawolf May 17, 2013, 1:41 am

    Regarding Tuesdays in the market.
    Buy on Monday afternoon or early Tuesday morning. Sell on Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday morning. What is so hard about that . I’ve been doing it for about six weeks now. Easy money.

    • Robert May 17, 2013, 8:58 pm

      It will work until it doesn’t….

  • Buster May 16, 2013, 12:26 pm

    Highlights from Max Kaiser today:

    Stacy: “The population does not want to hear about it, they don’t want to care. All they care is that the price on the Nikkei, the price on the Dow, the price on the Footsie keep on going up. They don’t care what’s behind it, they don’t care how tortured the chicken was before they eat it, or how tortured the markets are before they consume it…..and well actually further to that comparing these chickens to the markets, is that… you know, when you grow these chickens so fast, and the way you do it is to remove any nutrients from it. The same with the financial system, you’re throwing more & more money from the bank of Japan, or the bank of England, or the US Federal Reserve, & it’s like having less & less nutrients, less & less wealth created from it, for the very reason that there’s so much more debt. ……..”
    Max: ” The nutrients would be ‘wages’.”

    http://maxkeiser.com/

    We live in a world with a multitude of ‘realities’ available to us. Like the doors in the Matrix we choose one based on our personal perspective, desires, motives & moral compass among other things. There is information available that allows us to confirm & reinforce our world view, so the ‘facts’ are often less a judgement on the world than our choices are on us.
    I personally value justice, peace & the empathy for life ahead of the markets & money, status etc, so I’ll choose to reject it’s call for profit, not because I don’t think it’s going higher, & since WW3 is well under way it probably will benefit the global corporations enough to send them higher, especially since it is their ‘money’ that defines the price, but because I reject the whole direction of this, clearly fascist, structure. The world is going to hell in a handbasket & it may well prove that there is no purpose or meaning to anything, but I’ll not be party to it or side with any of the combatants, even if either has ‘God’ on their side. I’ll choose not to fit in, conform or profit rather than support something that I find to be abhorrent. They can put that on my gravestone, & the victors can have the world that they’ve recreated. Good luck with it. I’d rather lay down there than experience the world that is coming, & I’ve a feeling everyone else will agree sooner rather than later, not from a theory or reading a chart, but from what will unfold right before our eyes & unite all humanity in a common realisation of one reality.

    • gary leibowitz May 16, 2013, 6:13 pm

      I commend you for your honest forthright views. I also agree with the notion that there is corruption and a consumer that turns a blind eye to it. This is after all a very human trait. We are imperfect beings and our brain development is still in its infant stage geologically speaking. I would just like you to step back and tell me what era was just? What country, society, time period was there some utopian ideology that was dominant? Hasn’t the works of all sorcerers that foretell a dire future become the rallying cry for the day of judgment being at hand? Our own short history involved an unpopular and uninvolved colonial citizens staying away from the fight for independence. It had more to do with wealthy land owners having to pay taxes and goods from overseas. Washington’s own involvement is testament to that. He believed in an elitist structure. So much for the new American democracy. Do you really want to compare today with the Civil War? Slavery? Even the golden 50’s was a result of a World War, Korea, total manufacturing dominance, extreme segregation, and an ideal population growth expansion. The 70’s hyper-inflation and Viet Nam. On and on …..

      Try comparing the positives between now and than. Not so one sided is it? Nor should it be when viewing the world. Lighten up or you will drown in your own saliva.

    • gary leibowitz May 16, 2013, 6:16 pm

      “Try comparing the positives between now and than”

      Caught it! s/b then

    • Robert May 16, 2013, 9:04 pm

      “Try comparing the positives between now and then” –

      Simple- Money was DEFINED back then.

      People knew what they owned, and Government was intended to protect private property, not to destroy it.

      This planet does not belong to ANY of us- nor does it belong to ALL of us.

      It belongs to EACH of us.

      Get it?

    • redwilldanaher May 16, 2013, 9:31 pm

      Gary, NOW there is complete corruption of nearly everything. Everything has been corrupted and deformed to have now become unrecognizable. There can even be know pretense any longer for any thinking person. Think of it this way if you can Gary, corruption in most prior eras = the mean. Corruption now = 11 std. dev. from the mean.

      Do you get that?

      If you weren’t so annoying I’d be embarassed for you.

  • Troll May 16, 2013, 4:37 am

    Gary, please. You are sending us Bloomberg and Businessweek links as a means for us to properly assess what is going on? That is your answer to all the links that others here provide? I don’t click on any of the links, myself (bearish or bullish), including yours, because it all amounts to a hill of beans. However, if nothing else makes sense, look at a chart. Last wave? You got this from Bloomberg/Businessweek articles?

    • redwilldanaher May 16, 2013, 2:53 pm

      “Tool” or “Trite”.

    • gary leibowitz May 16, 2013, 4:53 pm

      Sending you the street news that the street follows. If you want to play the game you surely must know that most investors actually read these data points and react to them. They don’t shut out the world for 5 years and insist we are living in the “Matrix”.

      For all this time the market went one way and you went the other. If you can’t explain or understand why the market is up than you should not be investing, or you should try and figure it out. one or the other.

      Deflation is definitely here. Question is how does that affect the market and earnings? Not an easy answer since costs go down and wages stay low. Will the consumer retrench? Will profits keep up with expectations? Will revenue once again fall short? A mild deflation is good. A protracted one is bad.

      Got Gold? And I thought that gold was immune to deflation and the strong dollar. I guess you should rethink this unless you are in the massive manipulation camp. How easy to excuse everything that goes against you. Doesn’t help with making money, does it?

    • Troll May 17, 2013, 6:08 am

      Thank you, Red. I heard you the first time. I have twice agreed with you and got a grumpy old man in return. I truly hope you are old, because if you aren’t, I would hate to see the end result.

    • Troll May 17, 2013, 6:25 am

      Gary, I shouldn’t have to explain anything. I posted a target on the SPX a couple of commentaries back starting with A 666.79 C = 1074.77, a direct hit on the midpoint in August of last year and a target of 1778.56. There’s a smaller pattern, but this one just looks good. Admittedly, the gold chart looked destined for higher ground as well not that long ago; however, trailing stops are our one and only answer to the “sh** happens,” scenario in the market place.

  • gary leibowitz May 15, 2013, 5:04 pm

    It’s called a rip-roaring Bull market that has been under the radar till this year. The move off the lows of 2008 was the start of it. In fact while it is obvious to most that we are over extended it is not obvious that we have years more to go before the final blow off top is here.

    But you heard this all before. The pattern you allude to is not out of the ordinary. We have had long periods of gains with trends following a lazar defined trajectory. If this is a top of the intermediate kind, as I have suggested, it makes sense to ramp up right before the one year bear trend comes to play.

    Commodities will be in the doldrums till 2016. As expected GOLD broke decisively. 1220 is MY target.

    BTW, the numbers relating to this economy have been improving across the board despite the assumptions it could never happen. The amount of correct calls I have made combined with the lack of interest because I am not part of the GOP (doom/gloom party) is astonishing. A testament to how human emotional bias has taken over our intellectual component.

    Good luck to everyone. You would be best served if you stuck to purely technical evaluations without the undercurrent assumptions on trend.

    • redwilldanaher May 15, 2013, 6:21 pm

      Artificial. Engineered. Corrupt. Willful dupe…

    • gary leibowitz May 15, 2013, 7:09 pm

      Current run has a very convoluted logic: Big drop in manufacturing in April along with big drop in import and export prices. Budget deficit shrinking at a much faster pace.

      When all is said and done a muted recovery is just what corporations ordered.

      It sure looks like we are spiking on this last wave. how long or high? Another 1,000 points higher? I doubt it but anything is possible. My guess is we have a flat move for the next 2 weeks with slight upward bias.

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/u-s-stock-futures-decline-as-euro-region-economy-shrinks.html

      http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-05-15/the-incredible-shrinking-budget-deficit#r=rss

    • Troll May 16, 2013, 3:35 am

      The markets are, “Artificial. Engineered. Corrupt.” But we have at our disposal a tool that helps us navigate around all that, providing we don’t let common sense get in the way of a chart. Free your mind, and the rest will follow.

    • Bob May 16, 2013, 11:19 am

      Gary, you should be a PR guy of some kind. Look, this is no more than a Fed injected POMO rally. Remove the artificial POMO and this rally reverses to discover price with quite some vigor.

    • redwilldanaher May 16, 2013, 2:52 pm

      Troll, let me suggest a change to maybe “Tool” or “Trite”.

    • Robert May 16, 2013, 8:56 pm

      Who was it around here that identified the behavior of the big rallies on Tuesdays…? Was it RA?

      Tuesday is POMO day – all one needs to do it look at how many Federal Reserve people are logged onto Bloomberg on Tuesdays, and juxtapose that with the volume on Tuesdays versus the rest of the week.

      The market sells to the Fed on Tuesdays.

      Take away the Tuesdays, and there is no all time highs, there is no bull market, thers is no volatility, and there is no trade volume.

      So sure, go ahead and keep trading- The Fed will be there next Tuesday to buy whatever you need to unload (and at higher prices)

      That’s how the free money system works (for now) .

  • John Jay May 15, 2013, 3:33 pm

    Rick, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore!
    http://tinyurl.com/7rcaw7h
    That movie clip explains our location in time and space.

    At least it is until our “Houston, we have a problem here” moment.
    http://tinyurl.com/7f4loqf

    So that’s where we are.
    And that’s where we’re headed.
    “That is the sound of inevitability.”
    http://tinyurl.com/y8gs28n