The correction from the all-time high recorded on May 22 looked to have run its course at yesterday's low, 1620.75 (see inset). That's 1.00 point above a clear Hidden Pivot, and the fact that the turn came from just above the target is mildly bullish going forward but would become still moreso if and when the bounce 'goes impulsive'. That would take an unpaused thrust exceeding a small external peak at 1645.75 recorded Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT. Camouflageurs should take time to locate this peak on the 15-minute chart, since a 'b-c' pullback from just above it could provide a very low-risk set-up to get aboard. Immediate potential would be to 1648.50 (A=1620.75 at 11:45 a.m. on 6/3), but it could be just the beginning of a longer ride. _______ UPDATE (11:32 a.m. EDT): Well, well, well. It looks like the algos can tell the difference between a really rally and one with a yellow streak down its back. Today's was of the latter variety, since it stopped at exactly 1645.75, evidently sensing the same point of resistance that an actual human had identified and deemed significant (see above). The inability of the futures to push above this number should be noted as a sign of latent chicken-heartedness, notwithstanding the fact that my Dow target is still 1550 points above. This is yet another reason to keep one foot planted on the fire escape as the market attempts to rally into increasingly bad new -- now including yesterday's, that the U.S. manufacturing sector is in its worst slump since The Great Recession allgedly ended.
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
GDXJ Goes the Extra Millimeter
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksCheck out today's tout and chart for GDXJ, since it shows why the last millimeter of yesterday's rally was so encouraging. Camouflageurs can adapt the details of the chart to suit their buying needs. I'll provide tracking guidance if any fills are reported.
GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:11.85)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksThere were subtly encouraging signs in yesterday's price action as well as some good handholds for getting long via camouflage. Notice that the intraday high exceeded May 9's peak by a single penny. That's not much, but it was sufficient to refresh the bullish energy of the intraday charts as all robust rallies should, while also generating a buy signal (already tripped) at 12.53. The pattern points to D=12.82, and if the rally gets past that number with ease, we should infer that it is destined for even bigger things. Camo traders able to get aboard should let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (June 5): A day's hesitation has not diminished the bullish look of the intraday charts, and a tradable rally pattern will remain intact as long as 11.75 is not exceeded to the downside (see inset, a fresh chart). _______ UPDATE (June 11, 3:03 a.m. EDT): A few more days' hesitation sent GDXJ into a relapse that breached the prior low at 11.75. This created a bearish impulse leg, although bulls should still be presumed to hold an edge in this 'duel' (see inset, a new chart). That will remain the case until such time as 11.09 is exceeded to the downside.
Echoes from the Summer of 1929
– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 FreeOur forecast for the Dow Industrials calls for a blowoff top at 16810, about 1,700 points above Friday’s settlement price. Using proprietary technical tools, we have identified this “Hidden Pivot” target as one to keep firmly in mind -- not only as a major rally target, but as a place to lay out shorts aggressively ahead of a possible avalanche. As noted here earlier, however, despite the bullish prediction, we’re keeping one foot on the fire escape, since the risk of a historical collapse at any time seems inordinate. If and when it comes, conceivably from a level that has fallen shy of our target, it is almost certain to occur with such devastating speed that even those who believe they are ready for it will have no time to escape. More likely is that the financial collapse that ushers in the Second Great Depression will begin in Asia and Europe, and that it will be a fait accompli by the time New York traders arrive at their desks. For those who believe themselves prepared for this eventuality, Friday’s events should have been more than a little unsettling. In an unaccustomed display of weakness, the Dow fell 208.96 points to close out an otherwise strong month. However, it is not the decline per se that we should find troubling, but subsequent commentary that sought to explain it away. By and large, the selloff was ascribed mainly to “technical factors.” A typical analysis noted that “traders pinned the sharp selloff in the final minutes as technical in nature, rather than related to any particular news or change in views.” Other commentators noted that, even with Friday’s decline, May marked the seventh straight month in which the broad averages had achieved a gain. A further explanation was that end-of-quarter selling – absent
