Tuesday, June 11, 2013

GCQ13 – August Gold (Last:1372.90)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The August contract looks headed for another test of a 1354.20 midpoint support that barely held last time. If this Hidden Pivot is breached intraday by more than $2.00 or so, or the futures close beneath it for two consecutive days, we should infer that they are bound for the pattern's 'D' sibling at 1219.20.  A target very close to this was first breached here a month ago in conjunction with the June futures, along with another at 1190.

DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:81.08)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The big picture still looks bullish, but the dollar was due for a rest after peaking two weeks ago within a hair of the 84.55 rally target shown. We'll need to monitor the pullback closely for signs of more-than-minor weakness (i.e., abcd corrective patterns that exceed their 'd' targets), however, since the apex of the last rally fell a tad shy of the 84.57 peak it needed to have exceeded to reresh the bullish energy of the daily chart.  _______ UPDATE (4:10 p.m. EDT): Today's weakness spells more trouble, although not necessarily the U.S. dollar's imminent demise.  DXY will now fall to at least 80.66, or to 80.19 if any lower. Both numbers are Hidden Pivot supports, and if they don't evince a discernible bouncem then look out below.

NGN13 – July NatGas (Last:3.894)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The futures have slightly exceeded our longstanding downside target at 3.792, but the clarity of the correction pattern (inset, and judge for yourself) leaves precious little room for more weakness over the near term. Traders looking for a low-risk entry opportunity should focus on the 5-minute chart, where a buying signal was tripped at 3.795 early Tuesday morning at around 3:10 a.m. EDT.  My guess is that there will be others if you're attentive. _______ UPDATE (June 17):  The ease with which the futures crushed a clear HP support at 3.792 (see inset, a fresh chart) implies that even lower prices are coming. The damage could be undone with an upthrust surpassing 3.868, but failing that, the futures will likely grope their way down to obvious structural support near last February's 3.382 low. _______ UPDATE (June 18): The futures turned bullishly impulsive on the intraday charts at the top of yesterday's rally, but that doesn't alter the fact that the thrust came from lows that had exceeded an important and clear downside target. This suggest that lower lows will eventually be seen. For the time being, however, this vehicle should be traded with a bullish bias.

USU13 – September T-Bond (Last:134^05)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

We've been focused on a long-term bear-market target at 135^05, looking for any hint that the Fed is about to step in to reverse the steady price erosion in this vehicle before investors hit the panic button. A lesser but still significant target at 137^07 may provide clues concerning the near-  to intermediate-term, however, as well as a place to attempt bottom-fishing. This target is quite clear and has already been confirmed by precise price action at the 'p' midpoint, so you could conceivably step in with a bid at 135^06 and a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. However, and as always, camouflage will be the preferred entry tactic. Regardless of whether you trade the target, you should expect it to work precisely as a minimum downside objective. _______ UPDATE (June 19, 11:20 p.m. EDT): The futures have kissed the 137^07 target noted above, setting up a possible bottom-fishing opportunity for 'camo' traders. I'd suggest looking for your opportunity on charts of 15-minute degree or less. _______ UPDATE (June 20, 9:06 a.m. EDT):  Wow, I'm impressed.  The 137^07 support held for all of three hours before a steep plunge turned it into resistance. The selloff came within a little more than half-a-point of the longstanding, 135^05 target noted above -- a major bear market objective, as far as I'm concerned.  Because it comes from a continuous (i.e., blended) chart, however, it is unlikely to prove precisely reliable. To winnow down the possibilities of where an important low is likely to occur, I'll use the September contract, as before, but with a new point C low revised to reflect recent price action. This yields an attractive target at 134^15, a Hidden Pivot that should provide a decent foothold for camouflageurs. _______ UPDATE (July 1, 3:06 a.m. EDT):  Important Hidden Pivots

CLQ13 – August Crude (Last:96.09)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I was going to suggest shorting the 'D' target of this rally in August crude when I discovered it had already been reached. The asymmetry of the ABCD pattern makes the target deceptive in that way, but what drew me to it initially was the strong resemblance between k-A and B-C.  The D target was hit within 12 cents, confirming something I've noted here before -- that this particular vehicle can generally be traded with expectations of a turn within 20-25 cents of the targets of well-formed patterns.

ESM13 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1641.75)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The futures spent the whole day failing to 'actualize' the bullish impulse leg that had occurred on the opening bar.  Even adroitly opportunistic markets like this one need a catalyst to move higher, but yesterday there was no economic news of significance in sight -- only the passage of a $955B farm bill whose details are probably best left unscrutinized. Night owls can nonetheless attempt to leverage the pattern shown to get long, but I'd recommend waiting for a second, gratuitous point 'C'  low to form before you pounce. This being Tuesday, odds will tend to favor higher prices.

Let Gold Do Its Job!

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

[A recent commentary here, Pass Line Bettors Finally Seven Out, drew a spirited response that included the post below. It is from Robert Moore, a forum regular and gold bull whose online profile describes him as “the obvious Pragmatist.” Mainly, says, Robert, its all about trying to protect one’s savings from theft-by-Government. RA] Regarding the following, commonly held scenarios expressed within this lively discussion:  1) Catastrophic deflation, debt diminishes and debt-derivatives implode, versus 2) hyperinflation, as the the money masters print feverishly to prevent #1 above; or my personal favorites: 3) one, followed by two, which is nearly always countered with:  4) “No, you idiot, it will be two, followed by one.” There is the obvious fifth option that everyone overlooks, and yet not one person in a thousand will be honest with themselves as to why they overlook it. The fifth option is the unfettered (i.e., unencumbered, free-market) revaluation of that most contentious of non life-critical physical assets (yes, I mean Gold). All the central banks need to do to restore faith is to get out of the way and let markets do what they have always done: clear themselves. The message that humanity is sending the Keynesian water-carriers is that “more debt will not restore confidence,” and I dare any of you to try and play God with me and declare that more debt will restore confidence. No Debt Will Go Unpaid There is a point where a burned lender will refuse to lend more, and there is likewise a point where a burdened borrower will refuse to accept any more burden. We (i.e., humanity) have passed that event-horizon. It is in the rear view mirror. The debts must be paid, forgiven, or defaulted, in order to start the process of restoring confidence. Period. The only reason this