Thursday, June 20, 2013

GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:8.26)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Yesterday's breach of the mid-May low at 10.40 opens the sluice gate to the 8.57 target shown.  Meanwhile, a rally to the 10.87 midpoint pivot, which is now resistance, can be used by camo traders to get  short. Alternatively, it would take an unpaused thrust exceeding 11.53 to the upside to get out of jeopardy and return the advantage to bulls. You could speculate with a tightly stopped bid near 9.92, since that is the 'D' target of a lesser, bearish pattern.  _______ UPDATE (June 24, 8:20 p.m. EDT): The actual low at 8.70 was close enough to our target to have fulfilled it. This implies that traders should position from the long side for the moment, albeit with risk tightly under control. Accordingly, I'll suggest looking for your entry spot on charts of three-minute degree or less. If you fill, please let me know in the chat room and I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (June 26, 4:06 a.m. EDT): With Comex futures getting savaged tonight, we shouldn't count too heavily on the 8.57 target enduring.  ______ UPDATE (June 27, 3:45 a.m. EDT):  With Comex gold rallying, we should be prepared for a possible turn in this vehicle at any time. Accordingly, I'll suggest using the 3-minute chart to get long via camouflage. The inset shows why a pullback from just above 8.37 could be just the ticket. If you fill, please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

GCQ13 – August Gold (Last:1346.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Gold gutted and disemboweled a minor hidden support at 1353.60 that I'd flagged in the chat room (see inset), shortening the odds of the two-day close below 1353.70 that I'd said would clinch a fall to 1219.20.  There are two structural supports at, respectively, 1338.80 and 1323.00 that seem very likely to at least break the fall, but I expect any rebound from either to be temporary. Even so, and to guard against the hazards of certitude, we'll use 1439.40 as a bullish benchmark, since an impulsive thrust that hits that number would put the good guys back in the driver's seat.

T-Bond Breakdown and Mortgages

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

I've revised my bear-market target for September T-Bonds to reflect the fact that the crushing selloff begun yesterday has continued into this morning.  From the standpoint of spin-control, Bernanke would have us believe that it's a controlled avalanche.  Whether controlled or not, however, it will be yet another turn of the screw for a real estate market in which improvements have depended entirely on rates that have been heavily suppressed by the central bank. A White House shill said the other day that it would take significantly higher rates to kill the current housing boom. However, given the difficulty for new borrowers to qualify even at the preternaturally low rates that have obtained, the pundit should be drawn and quartered for saying something so wretchedly stupid and disingenuous.

DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:14921)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The pattern shown looks too pretty to miss, even by a hair. Traders are encouraged to make hay, which for night owls could entail shorting; or for early risers, bottom-fishing the 15054 target with a tight stop-loss. You can interpolate by using either DIA or the Mini-Dow to initiate the trade. Their respective targets lie at  150.45 and 15053.  As we went to press (10:38 p.m. EDT), the latter had just kissed its target and appeared to be lifting, albeit slightly. ______ UPDATE (9:26 a.m. EDT): The support held for less than an hour before sellers drove Dow Index futures 140 points lower. They have yet to find traction and now look like a good bet to hit a trendline that currently comes in at around 14850 (see inset, a fresh chart).

The ’Nank Plays It Very Safe

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

We could not have improved on Bernanke’s speech yesterday, although investors appear to have found it more than a little unsettling. Don’t worry, they’ll soon be back in droves, snapping up stocks as always, without so much as a moment’s pause as to why. Meanwhile, everyone knew beforehand that even the vaguest hint about cutting back on the Fed’s monthly purchases of Treasury debt and mortgage securities would be enough to send global markets spasming.  Look at the damage that’s been done already.  In the case of so-called emerging markets, they have gotten crushed in recent weeks as hot money has fled for safer venues.  And China’s financial system has begun to totter on fears that domestic credit speculation will not easily abide even a slight U.S. shift from easing. Under the circumstances, Bernanke talked his book about as well as he might have, suggesting that the U.S. economic recovery is proceeding well enough that it may be possible to end QE sometime next year. Yeah, sure. The official line has been that unemployment could be at 7% or lower within a year and that the real estate market will continue to firm. As Goebbels famously said, if you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. So it is with a U.S. economic “recovery” that has rested solely on inflated home prices and shares driven by untold $$ trillions of funny money. Gold’s Usual Reaction Wall Street’s conniptions in response to Bernanke’s latest variation on a theme was at least amusing, with traders slipping and sliding in their own excrement, so to speak. The chart above shows this. The initial feint was higher, but it proved to have been a bull trap when DaBoyz pulled the plug, sending the Indoos into

When a ‘Perfect’ Camouflage Set-Up Fails

– Posted in: Tutorials

Sometimes a seemingly perfect camouflage set-up will fail to produce a profit. We’ve all seen instances where a trade initiated at x caught a ride to the p midpoint but went no further. The tendency is to think we’ve done something wrong, but you should consider a second possibility – i.e., that the trend is simply too weak to reach the ‘D’ target of its minor camo pattern. In such situations, the best response is to jump on the next signal taking you in the opposite direction. This logic is demonstrated nicely in the recording. We were able to foresee a nasty reversal in August Gold later that day because of the failure of a minor, very tradable, uptrend to perform.