Friday, June 21, 2013

GOOG – Google (Last:880.37)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

If any stock looks strong enough to turn the market around, it's this one. Unlike Netflix, which has also been quite robust in recent weeks, Google refreshed the bullish energy of the intraday charts with its most recent thrust. You can see that it surpassed May 22's external high at 909.31, strongly implying that the selloff from Wednesday's high is a correction that should be bought.  If and when the pattern I've highlighted trips a buy signal, 'camo' traders should drop down to the 15-minute chart or less for a low-risk entry signal. ________ UPDATE (June 24, 8:12 p.m. EDT): All bets are off, since yesterday's low turned the daily chart into a so-far even 'duel' between bulls and bears. The bearish impulse leg became manifest with a dip beneath June 13's low at 865.50.  _______ UPDATE (July 1, 3:08 a.m. EDT): And now it's bulls who are in charge, targeted on 891.82 (see inset, a fresh chart). Once above the 883.00 midpoint pivot shown, the stock would be a promising long for camouflageurs. We've discovered during the Wednesday sessions that, trading the 30-second chart, one needn't risk more than 15-20 cents per round lot on entry.

DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:14758)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I mentioned in today's commentary that the all-time high achieved in late May was precisely predictable, even if our attention was elsewhere at the time.  The actual high occurred at 15542.40, just five points from a key Hidden Pivot resistance at 15547.50 (see inset).  As a practical matter, the fact that the rally target was achieved somewhat shortens the odds that still higher highs will be seen. We'll know more once we've seen how the current correction place out. If it forms an impulse leg on the weekly chart by exceeding 14444 to the downside, the c-d follow-though leg will be crucially important.  Specifically, the selling would need to reverse from the midpoint of the follow-through leg or higher to imply that the bull market is still healthy.

A Refreshing Change, but Will It Last?

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Refreshing.  Exhilarating, even!  But will it last?  Our gut feeling is that this is not The Big One – that investors will soon be throwing money at stocks again with the same reckless abandon they’ve shown since 2009. But it never hurts to dream. Imagine what a whole month of days like yesterday would do to clear the fetid, toxic air from Wall Street.  The effect would be positively cathartic if the capitulation phase were to lop, say, 2000 points from the Dow in just a few days. From that point forward, even the most churlish permabears  would recognize that the stock market was in recovery mode, too devastated to attract the quasi-criminal element that has controlled price action in recent years. High frequency trading circuitry would be fried, yields on dividend stocks would fatten and interest rates could seek their own level. Who knows? Perhaps even the $3 trillion-plus in dubious assets carried by the Fed would come available at market prices? Meanwhile, although our very bullish Dow target at 16800 remains theoretically valid, the burden of proof has shifted to bulls for a rare change. From a technical standpoint, we can see in retrospect that late May’s record high at 15542 was precisely predictable and therefore shortable. The reason is shown in the weekly chart accompanying today’s DJIA tout, which can be accessed by non-subscribers via a free trial subscription. Those familiar with Hidden Pivot Analysis, including your editor, might want to kick themselves for missing the opportunity. Less easy to miss in the days ahead would be the creation of a bearish “impulse leg” on the weekly chart. The last time this occurred was in July 2011, and it signaled the onset of a 2147-point decline, or 17.6%. If a selloff of similar magnitude were to occur