Tuesday, June 25, 2013

We haven't traded Silver Wheaton (SLW) in a while, but I've included the stock in today's list of touts because it would become an enticing buy on a further fall of about 13% from current levels. For precise details, including an option-based strategy for bottom-fishing, check out the SLW tout and the chart that accompanies it.

It's been quite a while since we fooled around with this stock, but I am featuring it today since it would become a fetching buy at the 16.74 Hidden Pivot target shown. That is my minimum downside objective for the near term, and if it is reached that would represent a further fall of nearly 13% from current levels.  The corrective abc pattern looks sufficiently compelling that we can attempt bottom-fishing without camouflage. Accordingly, I'll recommend buying four Aug 17 calls if and when the stock gets within 8-12 cents of the target. If this were to occur next week, I would guess that the calls would be trading for around 1.40, give or take a dime. You should monitor the bid/offer for the options as the stock approaches the target, since that will give you a precise idea of how much you should pay for them. We'll risk a theoretical $100 on the trade by stopping ourselves out if the options trade for 0.25 less than we've paid for them. _______ UPDATE (June 27, 3:38 a.m. EDT):  The 16.74 target flagged above still looks opportune, but to avoid missing a buying opportunity if it's not reached, I'll suggest looking for camouflage set-ups on the 15-second chart.  A key high at 17.86 recorded at 2:45:15 is the kind of 'external' peak I have in mind for this gambit. _______ UPDATE (July 2, 2:55 a.m. EDT):  The stock has reversed sharply off a 17.74 low that lay a dollar above my target. This is short-term bullish, although not yet entirely persuasive because Friday's high suspiciously failed to surpass a key 'external peak at 19.85 recorded on June 24.  In any event, camouflage traders should look for opportunities -- probably from the buy side -- on the 15-minute chart. _______ UPDATE (July

Apple could fall a further $107 before reaching the worst-case Hidden Pivot target at 295.85 shown in the chart.  Regardless, we'll want to try bottom-fishing at the 380.80 midpoint support, since it promises to launch a tradable bounce, however short-lived. The rally could be especially steep, since the low will have occurred following an ostensible breakdown beneath the 385.10 bottom recorded in mid-April. For now, though, use 380.80 as a minimum downside objective.  A two-day close beneath that number would of course shorten the odds of a continuation of the bear market to D=295.85. _______ UPDATE (July 1, 2:38 a.m.): An upturn has come from 388.87 -- well above my target support -- but we shouldn't get too excited because Friday's high failed to take out the previous day's peak at 401.39.  _______ UPDATE (July 8, 3:03 a.m. EDT): The last rally failed to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart, weakening the bullish case for the very near term. _______ UPDATE (July 10): After lagging the market for nearly a week, Apple lurched higher yesterday, aided by a bear-trap opening and the short-squeeze that ensued. The 437.94 rally target shown ( see inset, a fresh chart) should be kept in mind, along with a 424.16 midpoint resistance that can be leveraged by camouflageurs looking for a place to board. _______ UPDATE (July 22, 3:30 p.m. EDT): A $13 rally sputtered out at 434.87, more than $3 shy of the target. This is a warning to bulls that the selling would become stronger if the current correction exceeds its 420.12 target (see inset, a fresh chart). Regardless, the target and its 'p' sibling at 424.93 are logical spots to try bottom fishing via camouflage. _______ UPDATE (July 23, 5:30 p.m. EDT):  We'll back away for now, since lunatics, scoundrels