Thursday, December 19, 2013

When Desperation Demanded Action

– Posted in: Tutorials

There was tedium such as we’ve rarely seen before as the market bided its time in anticipation of a Fed Tapeworm announcement. If this recording has value, it lies in the ‘anything goes’ thinking that lay behind our trading decisions, such as they were. For a glimpse at desperation in action, check out this session, a dubious classic.

SIH14 – March Silver (Last:19.495)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Silver has shown somewhat more pluck than gold lately. Although the bulls' safety margin for more weakness has eroded, it  is not quite down to the nubbins, as is the case with February Gold. As such, the benefit of the doubt we might accord the good guys is somewhat more elastic than that which obtains for gold bugs.  Assuming the 19.280 point 'C' low holds, the daily chart would turn quite bullish on a print at 20.925.  That would exceed an external peak 'along the wall', generating the most impressive bullish impulse leg we've seen since last August.

New Bear Market Target for Gold: $1028

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

A 1028 target is now discernible in February Gold -- significantly worse than the 1125 target we've been using as a potential bear-market low.  For further details, check out today's tout for the Comex February contract. If you don't subscribe but would like a peak behind the paid-subscriber wall (as well as access to the Rick's Picks chat room), click here for a free two-week subscription.

GCG14 – February Gold (Last:1220.40)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

With yet one more lower low in a seemingly endless, two-year succession of them, the futures have nearly run out of room to correct last week's $57 rally.  Any lower and they will not only be beneath its starting point, they'll be threatening to breach an even more important low at 1187.90 recorded back in June.  At that point I would judge the bear-market pattern shown, with a 1028.50 target, to be in play. That, of course, would be even nastier than the 1125.00 target we've been using till now.  At this point, however, you could say that the futures are hanging on for dear life near the Hidden Pivot midpoint support of the target pattern.

ESH14 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1814.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The lunatics and thieves who stoked yesterday's Tapeworm-induced short-squeeze are aiming for at least 1830.25, a Hidden Pivot target which if achieved would imply at least 200 more points of upside for the Dow over the near term. The so-far intraday high at  1806.75 refreshed the bullish energy of the hourly chart by exceeding all previous highs, but the futures will probably still need to pull back to at least 1797.25 to get a running start on the next leg up.  If you're keen on catching a ride higher, I'd suggest waiting for a second point 'C' low to form before acting. I've sketched this out hypothetically for your further guidance. ________ UPDATE (9:30 p.m. EST): In after-hours trading the futures have gotten within a single tick of tripping a buy signal at 1806.50 (see inset, a new chart). It would be the first such signal, however, rather than the second, which is the one I'd recommended jumping on. Accordingly, you should wait for the pattern to develop as I've sketched it before looking for an entry opportunity on charts of lesser degree. Assuming you're a night owl, you could also attempt it on the signal that appears to be imminent, using the point 'A' low noted. This is suggested if you're worried that the trade will get away from you if you wait for a second point C to form. ______ UPDATE (December 20 at 2:29 p.m. EST): In the chat room, I've drum-rolled an 1841.00 target, subject to midpoint resistance at 1818.00. As of this moment, the intraday high is 1817.75. I've flagged this number as very shortable and suggested doing so via camouflage on the one-minute chart.  As of this instant (2:29:13), an impulsive downtrending abc would be signaled by an 1816.50 print. _______ UPDATE (3:34 p.m.):