Yesterday’s strong rally failed by a whisker to hit my bullish benchmark at 1268.10.  That would have generated a very encouraging ‘impulse leg’ on the hourly chart; alas, the actual high occurred at 1267.50, a mere 60 cents shy of a ballistic triumph. Now, although I expect the futures to get past 1268.00, the implication of their needing another running start at it is less bullish than if the resistance had been conquered on the first try.

Even so, we should guard against being overly skeptical merely because every rally we’ve seen in recent months has fizzled. This one is to be traded with a bullish bias for now, and camouflageurs should use the 15-minute chart for ideas. As of this moment, a minor impulsive breakout would be signaled by a print at 1266.10 (see small inset), and a short pullback from just above that number would make for an enticing trade.