Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Priceline to Wall Street: Toga! Toga!

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

With Priceline's take-no-prisoners $60 short-squeeze yesterday, the institutional thieves and lunatics who control the stock announced that they are solidly back in command. The Dow Average was evidently feeling less ebullient, but in the end it could not resist joining the party, albeit in sober fashion.  It would appear that the 1933.25 target I've been drum-rolling for the E-Mini S&Ps is very much in play, implying an equivalent rally of nearly 500 points in the Dow.

AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:541.65)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Apple has been edging toward the TV hardware business. This is good news, since, if there's a company capable of breaking the stranglehold on programming held by cable operators whose greed knows no bounds, it is Cupertino's best and brightest. Most of us have been thinking about jettisoning cable anyway, since no one wants to pay $80 or more per month for commercial-ridden programming bundled so that we have to pay for 1000 channels filled with garbage just to get a few watchable channels.  What is needed -- and what Apple, partnered with a TV manufacturer, can supply -- is a new standard that will allow easily customizable programming from online sources with a handheld device, tablet or cell phone. That said, the stock looks like it could meander or work even its way lower for a while -- that is, for a few weeks or longer. Notice that the December high at $575 failed to surpass a key external peak at $594 recorded back in November 2012. Since then, the stock has gone into 'dueling' mode, with bears holding a small edge at the moment.  That could change quickly with a modest rally exceeding $560.  But if bulls can't pull it off, AAPL would face immediate jeopardy down to the 484.15 target shown. We'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now, since this bellwether stock has been in the vanguard of a bull market now entering its sixth year. But if rallies in the weeks ahead seem to lack their old vigor, at least you'll know why.

USM14 – June T-Bond (Last:134^01)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

We don't pay much attention to this vehicle other than at key turning points, but the short-term pattern shown looks like a lay-up for traders who see futures contracts as no more than bouncing dots on a chart, waiting to be exploited. There are actually two trade possibilities here: 1) a 'camouflage' short as USM slips below the 132^13 midpoint; 2) and a very tightly stopped long from within a tick or two of the 131^17 target. Good luck!  Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (3:17 p.m. ET): The short was tricky to initiate, but once aboard, your reward came quickly with a drop to a so-far low at  131^26. As noted above, the short should be covered and reversed near 131^17. ______ UPDATE (April 6, 3:57 p.m.): The low of Friday's violent price swings was 131^21 -- not quite close enough to have gotten you long easily. Although this could prove to be an important low for the short- to intermediate term, under the circumstances I'll assume no subscribers were filled. _______ UPDATE (April 11, 1:03 a.m.): Next important stop on the way higher: 135^17. _______ UPDATE (April 20, 11:10 p.m. ET): Last week's fleeting stab to 135^10 came within less than a quarter-point of my target -- close enough for us to consider it fulfilled. It took the futures more than a month to get there, so we should expect this correction-or-worse to last for at least a week or so before bulls attempt to push T-Bonds to new recovery highs.

ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1877.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Traders looking for actionable advice in real time might want to consider following me on Twitter by clicking here. Anyone dialed in yesterday would have received the following tweet at 1:16 p.m. EDT:  'E-Mini S&P: So-far high somewhat shy of still-good 1881.25 target. Pullback to Hidden Pivot 'sibling' at 1870.25 is spec buy w/ tight stop.'  As you can see in the accompanying chart, the futures pulled back to exactly 1870.00 before embarking on a 9.50-point rally that could have been worth as much as $950 to anyone long just two contracts. Ordinarily I would now suggest reversing long positions and going short at the 1181.25 target, which was missed by 2.50 points. However, although the target itself remains viable, any hysterics overnight or at the opening bell could make it tricky to squeeze off the short with the very tight stop-loss that I usually advise. Looking ahead, a decisive move today past the target would portend still more strength.  If it comes, we've got a 1933.25 rally target to inform our trading decisions.  As I noted here earlier, I am very wary of the possibility that a run-up to this Hidden Pivot, representing a new all-time high, would be a bull trap. We'll want to try shorting there regardless, so stay tuned if you're interested.