Monday, April 14, 2014

Sunday Night’s Tale-of-the-Tape

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

June Gold is up perhaps just enough Sunday night to encourage false hopes. Please note, however, that there could be easy opportunity nonetheless -- how does a ride to as high as 1335.20 sound? -- if amidst the tedium a subtle impulse leg turns up on the lesser charts.  The broad averages, meanwhile, are still feeling Friday's pain. Check out a Hidden Pivot target given in today's E-Mini S&P tout if looking for a spot to bottom-fish.

ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1822.75)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The bottom of Friday's slide came within 1.50 points of the 1805.75 target I'd supplied. A 10-point rally ensued, and although one could have gotten aboard using the larger of the two patterns shown, the subtler one labeled in purple would have nipped you for small change first. The action has since turned characteristically pointless, and, true to its new, robotized, lobotomized personality, ES is not giving away any berries Sunday night by way of attractive 'camo' patterns. Rather than suggest that night owls look for camouflage that even I can no longer find in this vehicle, I'd suggest initiating trades 'old-style' by going against the trend at D targets of not-too-obvious patterns.  One such target is 1789.25, which can be found on the 60-minute chart using the following coordinates: A=1866.50 (4/10 at 10:00 a.m.); B=1823.75 (4/19 at 4:00 p.m.); and C=1832.00 (4/11 at 4:00 a.m.). _______ UPDATE (10:42 a.m. ET): This mirage went no lower than 1803.25 overnight, denying us an opportunity to bottom-fish my target. The rally since is impulsive on the hourly chart, based on these coordinates: a=1811.25 at 7:45; b=1824.75 at 9:45; and c=1818.50 at 10:15.

DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:160.10)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

So certain was I that this vehicle would plummet to exactly 159.80 on Friday that I added the following note to my tout, which suggested bottom-fishing at that price: "The Devil himself could not entirely avoid a Hidden Pivot as clear as this one."  In the actual event, DIA fell to 159.88, prompting the following email message from a subscriber who recently took the Hidden Pivot Course:  "I am unable to stop myself from sending this email. There are D targets and then there are D targets. This was the latter one!!!!   I am talking about the DIA target you had for Friday. I have attached the chart you put out. In the tout you said, 'The Devil himself could not entirely avoid a Hidden Pivot as clear as this one'. "There were lots of times on Friday when it looked like the market would bounce and never get even close to your target, but you had this relentless confidence on this target. (I don't care that it did not reach the exact target). Your confidence gave me the confidence to not cover my positions when DIA bounced from around 160.25  at 10:20am to 161.25. I really want to learn how you could have such a high confidence in this pattern ? You are the only [guru] I have ever met who is honest, which is why I am asking you this question. Being a good student and learning is more important to me than just getting trade recommendations. TK." First, TK, let me tell you how pleased I am to hear from a subscriber who profited from the tout. The fact that you were able to do even though I missed the low of Friday's $1.59 plunge by 8 cents attests not only to your diligence, but to your

GCM14 – June Gold (Last:1299.20)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

June Gold is off to a so-far $9 rally Sunday night. But before you get too excited, try to recall the last time a middling rally on a Sunday night went on to bigger and better things.  This note of skepticism is notwithstanding the fact that the futures hit a Hidden Pivot benchmark last week implying a further rally to at least 1354 over the near term. That's a probability, by the way, not a guarantee. What I can guarantee -- better put that word in quotes: 'guarantee' -- is a bit more upside this evening to the 1335.70 target shown. Night owls looking to get aboard should make use of the 1329.60 'external peak' highlighted on the left-hand side of the chart. A BC-type pullback from just above it would be exactly what we need to set up a potentially low-risk entry opportunity ahead of the expected push to 1335.70. _______ UPDATE (10:46 a.m. ET): The futures mucked around in tedium after the tout above went out. Although the very modest, 1335.70 target remains valid in theory, it's probably not worth the bother. The short-term charts remain nominally bullish. _______ UPDATE (8:21 p.m.):  No change since my last update.  Set an alert at 1343.30 if you want to awaken to the encouragement of positive developments. ________ UPDATE (April 15, 10:20 a.m.): Not only have their been no positive developments, bullion has gotten trashed this morning, down as much as $43 at one point. The weakness projects to 1265.60, $19 beneath the so far low. Here are the coordinates, from the daily chart: A=1343.20 on 3/21; B= 1277.40 on 4/1; and C=1331.40.  By implication, the bounce at the moment to p=1298.50 is a short sale, but camouflage is strongly advised.

Only Obama Believes the Debate Is Over

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Like George Bush before him, Barack Obama unfurled a “Mission Accomplished!” banner last week that can only come back to haunt him. To assert, as Obama did, that the Obamacare debate is settled is to flout hard truths that are negatively impacting the lives of virtually every American each and every day, hitting them literally where they live. Although the overweening arrogance of the man has undoubtedly blinded him to the risks of such hubris, Democrats running for their political lives in November can smell the impending disaster like a dead skunk a mile down the road. Not that Obamacare isn’t a disaster already  – only that the looming catastrophe will make the ‘Affordable’ Care Act snafus to date seem mild in comparison. Coming Soon to Your Home For  starters, although millions of Americans who had individual insurance have lost their coverage, that figure will grow to tens of millions once Obamacare has laid waste not just to health care plans offered by the largest employers, but to the insurers themselves.  More immediately,  however, and despite the almost weekly watering down of Obamacare mandates, an unprecedented spiral in health insurance premiums has begun that can only accelerate between now and the fall elections.  In this regard, there was bad news for Democrats last week when a quarterly survey of 148 health brokers was released by Morgan Stanley. Focusing on policy renewals, it showed the biggest surge in rates for individuals and small groups since the survey began three years ago.  Rate hikes over the three-month period amounted to about 12 percent, but some states are experiencing surges 10 to 50 times that.  They are hitting New Hampshire hardest of all, since all but a handful of health care providers exited the state after its Democratic governor became the first to