Tuesday, April 22, 2014

June Gold is closing on a pair of tightly spaced Hidden Pivot supports where we might look for a tradable low, possibly an important one. There are no guarantees, however, and bullion could be in for a nasty fall if both supports fail. For precise details, check out today's Gold tout and the chart that accompanies it.  Not a subscriber? Click here for a free peek, no credit card necessary.

A downside target at 1263.10 given here earlier looks likes a logical place for bulls to dig in their heels. It comes from the hourly chart (A=1328.40 on 4/14), but there is another Hidden Pivot support on the 'daily' at 1265.60 that looks just as compelling. I would encourage tightly stopped bottom-fishing at either number, but if you prefer to do so with a straight bid rather than via 'camouflage', the lower number is probably the better place to try. Neither target is 'virginal', since each has had a couple of days to get talked up outside of the chat room. One final note: It's a long drop to the next Hidden Pivot  support, 1216.60, if the one at 1263.10 should fail.  _______ UPDATE (10:57 a.m. ET): On the 15-minute chart, the futures are in a downtrend at the moment with a clear enough target at 1273.20 that one could bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 1272.90. (A=1302.50 on 4/20; B=1281.80 on 4/20). Judging from the way sellers shredded the 1283.50 midpoint pivot, the futures WILL get there.

An entire day spent screwing the pooch failed to lift the futures above a modest but technically important peak at 1867.50 recorded last Thursday. Once this happens, it is almost certain to turn bears fearful, causing the flurry of short-covering that seems destined to push this gas-bag to new record highs.  The foregoing is not a done deal until the peak has actually been exceeded, but traders looking to get a piece of the action should zoom in on any print above 1867.50, since the subsequent pullback could yield a relatively low-risk entry opportunity.  Such a pullback would be more useful if it occurs relatively quickly (and by 'quickly', I mean within 30 seconds to two minutes of the upside breach). This implies that you should probably look for your entry signal on the 3-minute chart or less. _______ UPDATE (10:01 a.m. ET): The 3-minute chart tripped a 'camo' buying signal at 9:48 that worked: A=1863.00 at 8:15 a.m.; B=1868.25 at 9:36; and C=1865.75.  If you were on the one-minute chart, however, there was one false entry signal before the rally began in earnest.

Since March 20, when GDXJ was trading for around $40, I have been looking for a potentially important low at 34.00.  More recently, I revised that target to exactly 33.76, a 'Hidden Pivot support'. Yesterday it came within a single penny of nailing the exact low of a vicious swoon. The low may or may not prove to be the last gasp of a correction that has been in progress for the last five weeks, but it stood to be an opportune place to try bottom-fishing.  In that regard, quite a few subscribers reported getting aboard at or near the low, and so I've established a tracking position for their further guidance. It consists of 200 shares with a cost basis of 33.58. The price takes into account an initial purchase of 400 shares for 33.79, then the taking of a partial profit on half the position at 34.00.  The bounce so far has hit 34.90, meaning GDXJ has trampolined $1.14 cents since hitting my three-week-old target.  For now, traders should stop themselves out of the position if GDXJ breaches two prior lows on the 5-minute chart without an upward correction.  As of this moment, that would imply placing the stop at 34.37 (and remember: it must be exceeded by an unbroken, downtrending leg).  You should also offer a round lot (or half of the remaining position, whichever is greater) to close for 36.80, good-till-canceled. _______ UPDATE (11:38 p.m. ET): The herky-jerky spasms in the first 90 minutes altered our stop-loss so that it would have taken a 34.07 print to stop us out -- 23 cents beneath the actual low. I'll now suggest raising the bar by using an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 30-minute chart. That would imply a fall today touching 34.29.  Please note, however, that the