Friday, April 25, 2014

Corporate news concerning Facebook has been plenty bullish lately, to say the least, yet all the stock could muster yesterday was a routine head-fake to an intraday high that was inconspicuous in the context of price action over the last three weeks.  However, although the rally failed to surpass the obvious peak at 63.91 recorded on April 2 (see inset), notice how it did exceed two others, fulfilling our criterion for an impulse leg on the daily chart.  Moreover, the fact that it did not exceed the 63.91 peak makes it a good prospect to generate the kind of 'camouflage' entry signal that we patiently look for. If it happens today or Monday in the way I've drawn, we'll look to the lower charts to get us aboard with a penny-ante stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (April 27, 11:30 p.m. ET): Friday's gap-down plunge significantly weakened the bullish implications of the recent rally top, although it would take a print below 55.44 to negate them. You can use 52.91 as a minimum downside target if the stock closes lower today (120-minute, A=66.19 on 3/25; B=55.44 on 4/7). ______ UPDATE (April 30, 11:31 p.m.): Bulls snatched victor from the jaws of defeat with a sharp rally off a 54.66 low that lay just 22 cents above the 'fail-safe' number given above. Having also exceeded a very well defined Hidden Pivot target at 59.60 yesterday, odds favor more upside -- presumably into the gap between 60.02 and 60.75 created last Friday on the way down. _______ UPDATE (May 1, 11:08 a.m.): Goosed by a powerful short-squeeze that began the day, the stock has blown past any target that could have been adduced from the lesser charts. Now, a print at 63.92 would deliver the haymaker to bears.

It's been a while since we last looked in on the Aussie dollar, but I do so now in hopes that Americans tourists might one day find the fabulous pleasures of Sydney affordable once again. The long-term chart suggests that a fall to as low as 82 cents is possible (see inset). If so, that would represent a 25% decline from the $1.10 high achieved in July 2011. The target would be negated by a move above 0.9725, the point 'C' of the pattern, but until that occurs we should regard rallies such as the one begun in January with at least mild skepticism.

June Gold became a bull trade with yesterday's $30 surge, but powerful as this impulsive move was, I don't much trust it. Let me therefore stipulate that whatever follow-through impends, it achieve a minimum 1307.20 by Sunday night. That would refresh the bullish energy of the hourly chart, exceeding a small but technically significant peak recorded on the way down last week.  Failing that, the 1260.10 downside target remains not only viable, but an excellent place to attempt tightly-stopped bottom-fishing if the futures should suffer a relapse. (Note: This target has mutated slightly in the past week, from 1263.10 to 1265.60, but I like the current one, 1260.10 best, probably because the downtrending pattern itself has become so gnarly in the last few days.