Monday, June 2, 2014

Having broken a pennant support that traces back to February, August Gold now appears bound for a minimum 1216.60, based on the Hidden Pivot pattern shown. This would be a downpayment on an 1141.00 target that I'd said last week was in play. Because it comes from a continuous chart, that number may not work out precisely, However, it is nonetheless a technically viable price objective, even if 1216.60 should still be regarded as a good place to attempt tightly stopped bottom-fishing. _______ UPDATE (June 3, 1:56 a.m. ET): A drop to 1216.60 in the week ahead still looks no worse than an even bet, but if the flow is up today we should try to take advantage of it.  Notice in the 5-minute chart shown that there are a couple of small peaks recorded on the way down yesterday. Each can be used to get long on a small pullback from just above, much in the way shown in the chart accompanying today's Silver tout. _______ UPDATE (June 4, 1:14 a.m. ET):  Feeble buying yesterday -- but so was the selling. No change in my outlook: lower prices are likely. _______ UPDATE (June 5, 11:57 p.m.):  This rally could hit 1264.60, or 1266.40 if any higher over the near term, but first the futures must take out the midpoints pivots associated with those targets. They lie, respectively, at 1257.40 and 1258.30. Any easy move through them would be an encouraging sign. _______ UPDATE (June 10, 11:03 p.m.): A shaky rally is targeted on a minor Hidden Pivot at 1262.70, but the futures will first have to break decisively above its sibling midpoint resistance at 1254.20.

[America’s supposed recovery from The Great Recession is a hoax so obvious that only the mainstream news media, too lazy, cowardly and stupid to stray even an inch from the officially approved narrative, could fail to see it. And yet, here we are, so glutted with brick-and-mortar retail space that even if it were to be reduced by half there would still be an economically fatal overhang. Sales are plummeting and malls are dying – a matter of no small consequence, considering that retail business supposedly makes up two-thirds of America’s GDP. In the trenchant commentary below, the intrepid Jim Quinn updates and amplifies an article he wrote four months ago on this subject. With his kind permission, I am reprinting it here because it deserves as wide an audience as possible. The original is copiously illustrated with charts and can be accessed at the link above.  Other powerful essays by Jim can be found at numerous high-traffic web sites, including those shining beacons of truth, LewRockwell.com and ZeroHedge. Also, you can find David Stockman’s approving comments on Jim’s essay here.  RA] The definition of death rattle is a sound often produced by someone who is near death when fluids such as saliva and bronchial secretions accumulate in the throat and upper chest. The person can’t swallow and emits a deepening wheezing sound as they gasp for breath. This can go on for two or three days before death relieves them of their misery. The American retail industry is emitting an unmistakable wheezing sound as a long slow painful death approaches. It was exactly four months ago when I wrote The Retail Death Rattle. Here are some excerpts from that article: A Warning Siren The absolute collapse in retail visitor counts is the warning siren that this country is about

The futures overshot a compelling Hidden Pivot rally target on Friday, but I'm going to allow for the possibility that an alternative target worked precisely and could mark an important top. Both targets are shown in the chart, and although the higher of them, D2=1923.25, is not one that I would typically take seriously because it is derived from a 'too-obvious' low at 1803.25, I'm inclined to give the pattern the benefit of the doubt nonetheless because of the nasty reversal in momentum stocks late in the session.  If D2 is exceeded by more than perhaps 2-3 points, however, a Hidden Pivot rally target at 1954.25 will be in play. Although I had suggested here earlier that the high-fliers, particularly AAPL, might pull the stock market higher, we'll have to wait and see whether the opposite holds true -- i.e, that either the world-beater stocks pull the broad averages down; or that the broad averages pull the world-beater stocks up.  Interesting times, in any event. _______ UPDATE (10:06 a.m. ET):  Bulls have gotten sucker-punched by DaBoyz yet again as the futures fall hard from a marginally positive opening. The actual peak was at 1924.25 -- not far enough above the 1923.25 pivot to 'actualize' the bullish scenario discussed above.