Friday, June 6, 2014

Springtime for Permabears

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

It's that time of year! Spring is in the air, flowers are blooming, robins are chirping and the permabear has a song in his heart.  And what could tickle his delight more than the prospect of shorting the bejeezus out of every Hidden Pivot resistance that promises to rebuke El Toro once and for all?  Engaged by the possibility that the stock market's repeated feints to marginally new highs lately represent the dying throes of the bull market begun in 2009, we focus anew today on some trading gambits that seek to leverage the somewhat unthinkable. I have not published the actual rally target for the E-Mini S&P because I don't want to jinx it. A separate trade -- 'buy puts' -- in the Diamonds lies behind the subscriber wall. But if you're up for the exhilaration that betting on horses, cock fights and games of chance can bring, please do join us by clicking here -- no credit card necessary.

DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:169.23)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The 169.95 rally target shown doesn't synch up with the 1948.25 target given today for the E-Mini S&Ps.  In fact, it implies that the Dow will need to rally about 100 points higher than the analogous target for the E-Mini. Be that as it may, I'll suggest treating these vehicles separately: short 1948.25 and/or 1954.25 if you're playing the ES, but use 169.95 to buy puts if you prefer to trade an equity vehicle with options rather than futures contracts.  You can load up on out-of-the-money puts in whatever size you're comfortable with, but blow them out if they trade more than 0.15-0.25 below the bid price with DIA at 169.95. (Note:  The 169.95 target was erroneously given in two places above as 169.25, although not where I had boldfaced it in green.  This implies that no short was taken.  If you did so anyway, stop yourself out of the puts is they trade for 0.15 less than you paid for them.)  _______ UPDATE (June 10; 12:46 a.m.): DIA peaked yesterday at 169.58, so the 169.95 remain viable in theory. You can short there on the terms suggested above.

ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1938.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

A potentially important top just above?  Yeah, I know you've heard it before -- from a hundred gurus, relentlessly. But it sure looks like one. I should have noticed it earlier, but as is so often the case, the epiphany came while I was conducting a tutorial session for some recent graduates of my trading course.  Actually, we discovered two 'Hidden Pivot' resistances, six points apart, that, acting in concert, could show some hairy-knuckled stopping power.  Okay, the rally target at 1930.25 that I drum-rolled here yesterday got blown to smithereens by a short-squeeze imbued with headless-chicken power by panic and confusion over Draghi's announced plan to deal with Europe's little deflation problem. These new targets are more compelling than the one at 1930.25, but I am not about to jinx them by billboarding them in a freebie tout that goes out each night to nearly 9,000 subscribers. However, I will divulge their location to anyone who visits the Rick's Picks 'Banter Room' after 9:00 ET Friday morning. You can get a free pass to the room, and a free two-week trial to my service, by clicking here. No credit card necessary! When you get to the home page after signing up, just click on the 'Chat' tab up top, and then click 'Banter' toward the top of the page that comes up. Stick around if you'd like to join a virtual koffee clatch with the friendly, always-helpful bunch in the other room, Rick's Saloon and Betting Parlor.  Hope to see you in the A.M.!