The impending collapse of Iraq will bring even more violence and chaos to a Middle East that has been on the verge of a world-shaking eruption. Regardless of whether ISIS jihadis move on Baghdad or consolidate their recent gains in Mosul and Tikrit, the price of crude is about to soar. This will happen immediately and precipitously if Iranian troops sent to help Maliki fight the hated Sunnis turn Iraq into a war zone. Under the circumstances, a bull trade in crude futures seemed like a no-brainer when I posted a long-trade entry in the chat room shortly before at 4 a.m. Thursday. July Crude was hovering around 104.79 at the time but has since shot up to 107.36 and shows no sign of backing off. I'd been using a purely technical target of $119 per barrel for several weeks, but before Mosul fell I was clueless about what might cause such a run-up. Now I know. Touts for Friday include a bullish trade in July Silver and potential scalping opportunities from either side of the market in the June E-Mini S&P. If you're keen to trade the latter, keep in mind that a long would be going against a bigger-picture short we'd already established two ticks off the all-time high at 1954.75.
Friday, June 13, 2014
ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1930.25)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksThe downtrending pattern shown yields three potential trading opportunities, presumably for night owls, if the 1925.00 high holds as point C: 1) play for a bounce from either p (1917.75) or 2) D (1910.75); or 3) go short on a breach of p. Keep in mind that any bullish bets will be going against a larger downtrend that could start to snowball and which we are already short two contracts (of an initial four) from, effectively, 1960.00. If either of the supports identified in the chart gives way easily, that would add weight to the big-picture bearish case. Note: We'll roll our two short contracts into September, using a 1954.00 basis. _______ UPDATE (June 16, 1:47 a.m.): Friday's rally altered my parameters slightly, as shown, creating a new midpoint support ay 1918.75. That is the exact low so far Sunday night, but if it's breached, 1907.75 will be the next stop on the way down. For the time being, our tracking position of two short contracts from a profit-adjusted 1954.00 should be tied to an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 30-minute chart. Currently, that would dictate an exit on a rally exceeding the 1931.75 peak shown. Keep in mind that the rally would have to be uncorrected once the peak at 1929.75 is surpassed. _______ UPDATE (June 16, 9:48 a.m. ET): This morning's running of stops has invalidated downside targets given above. I don't see this hoax getting very far, but I'll suggest raising the stop-loss nonetheless to 1935.00. This time, the stop must be achieved by an uncorrected impulse leg on the 15-minute. _______ UPDATE (10:10 a.m.): Raising stop again to 1939.75, and it must be achieved impulsively, no corrections, on the 30-minute chart.
SIN14 – July Silver (Last:19.585)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksThe futures are looking robust for the first time in a long while. Yesterday's rally generated yet another bullish impulse leg on the daily chart by surpassing an external peak at 19.525 recorded on May 23. A rally that is able to exceed at least two prior peaks with each new thrust, as Silver has been doing, is demonstrating that it is raring to go. If this is indeed so, we should see a surge today that surpasses the distinctive external peak at 19.825 (see inset) from May 22. Night owls looking to climb aboard should look to do so on a resumption of the rally following a shallow pullback of perhaps 15 cents from Thursday's 19.565 high. _______ UPDATE (June 16, 2:00 a.m. ET): Silver's vital signs remain strong with Sunday night's push above the 19.825 peak flagged here earlier. The next test of resistance lies at at Hidden Pivot at 19.890. It was approached within 1.5 cents earlier tonight, but the sooner it is exceeded, the more likely the uptrend is to continue over the near term. _______ UPDATE (June 17, 12:10 a.m.): A Hidden Pivot target at 19.430 is my minimum downside projection for the near term. It can be bottom-fished with a very tight stop-loss, but if the stop is hit, expect still more weakness. (Note to Pivoteers: On the 5-minute chart, the target comes from a=19.875 on 6/15).
