Tuesday, July 1, 2014

DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:169.24)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

If the 'mystery target' in ES fails to contain the bulls, there is another in DIA that should make for an equally fetching short...eventually.  It implies that a 400-point rally lies ahead in the DJIA, and although that may sound fanciful, we've learned by now to give the mindless herd, especially when stampeding to cover shorts, the benefit of the doubt. Check out the June 12 DIA post in the archive for the exact number and a compelling chart. _______ UPDATE (July 1, 10:38 a.m. ET): As part of a straddle (vs. AMZN calls), we hold two 166-strike puts expiring in three days, but I'll suggest writing them off, along with the calls. The loss would be $268. _______ UPDATE (July 1, 11:14 p.m. EDT): We tested our luck with the purchase of some expiring puts at the 196 strike for 0.38, but got stopped out at 0.29 for a very small loss after having ridden them no higher than 0.45.  This is a less stressful play than shorting index futures, so expect more of it in the future. The chat room is the place to hang out for real-time guidance.

ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1954.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I've made this target a do-it-your-selfer, since too much publicity can compromise the usefulness of even the most picture-perfect Hidden Pivot. This one surely falls into that category, and you can find out its exact location by checking out my  9:34 post in the chat room from June 30.  It is a number that can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as 1.25 points, or used to reverse a long position initiated from current levels. Or you could simply sit back and enjoy the show. Its shorting potential is heightened by its location relative to the previous all-time high. To calculate the target, use the 6/18 low as your starting point. I have deliberated flattened the price bars so as to further obscure the notable result.  Pay heed as well to the fact that the midpoint pivot provided only shaky resistance and that it has been since turned into support. ______ UPDATE (1:18 p.m. ET): We shorted 1967.00 but got stopped out 75 minutes later. Shallow retracements are keeping bears on the hook today, but I'm still planning to short a single contract at 1972.50, a minor Hidden Pivot target, stop 1973.25, if there's at least an hour left in the session.

Dollar Signals a Bullish Turn

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

The Dollar Index has turned from within an inch of a potentially important correction target, implying that the intermediate-term trend is about to turn bullish. I've provided some precise numbers to judge the likelihood of this, since it holds implications for the currently bullish trends in gold and in other currencies.

DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:81.30)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The Dollar Index turned higher yesterday an inch from a correction target that had been three weeks in coming (see inset). This portends a bullish change for the intermediate term.  The actual target is 79.74, and there is always a chance it will be breached. If so, there's an alternative target at 79.62, but if it fails as well, especially without a fight, the implication would be more slippage to as low as  78.91, where a key low recorded in early May would thereupon beg to be tested. _______ UPDATE (11:17 p.m. EDT): Yesterday's low occurred at 79.74 exactly. If the dollar is about to reverse and move higher, it will have to happen here, and now. _______ UPDATE (July 9, 2:33 a.m. ET): The dollar rallied strongly for a few days, but it is still not out of the woods because the move narrowly failed to clear an important 'external' peak at 80.38 recorded on 6/26. _______ UPDATE (July 16, 6:55 p.m.): DXY came within an inch of a clear and important Hidden Pivot rally target at 80.60 yesterday (see inset, a new chart). However, it will have to push past it to imply that the rally from the July 1 low (which had been predicted to-the-penny) is more than just a flash-in-the-pan. _______ UPDATE (July 30, 2:53 p.m.): 81.85, here we come!! (See inset, a new chart.) _______ UPDATE (August 3, 6:15 p.m.): Last week's top hit 81.57 -- close enough for us  to consider the target fulfilled, but also mildly bearish for the short-term because the target was not quite reached. That could still happen, so we'll keep an open mind for now.

GCQ14 – August Gold (Last:1328.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The 1334.90 rally target sent out Sunday night very precisely contained yesterday's bullish feint, although the pivot worked in way that could be described as 'theatrical' (see inset).  From a technical standpoint and strictly speaking, we have no way of knowing for certain that the pivot will be brushed aside , or whether instead it will mark the highest high in gold futures for the next ten years. My strong hunch, however, is that the August contract will punch through it shortly, and when it does, the next logical target would be 1364.30 exactly.  Traders should plan accordingly. _______ UPDATE (July 9, 2:36 a.m. ET): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.