Thursday, July 17, 2014

GCQ14 – August Gold (Last:1299.40)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I've zoomed down to the 15-minute chart to create a pattern sufficiently nuanced to give us a handle on a possible end point for this choppy correction. Bottom-fishing the 1293.90 midpoint pivot could be dicey due to its close proximity to the 7/15 low, but D=1283.60 could be a piece of cake, since it lies in the middle of nowhere, so to speak, and therefore would not be subject to interference from the bozos.

SIU14 – September Silver (Last:20.795)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Kicking and screaming all the way, bulls once again avoided getting dragged beneath a key 'consolidation low at 20.630 recorded on June 20. Even if they succumb today it won't mean much, technically speaking.  You could try bottom-fishing either at the 20.503 midpoint support that was narrowly missed yesterday; or if not there, at its 'D sibling, 20.300. There are several possible choices for 'A' here, but the one I've selected at 21.275, along with the B and C coordinates, look just obscure enough to keep us separated from the crowd.

SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:26.43)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Yesterday's leap on the opening bar negated our plan to bottom-fish, but we can try again today using the pattern shown. Assuming Silver Wheaton's correction is near an end, we should expect good odds employing a bid for 400 shares at the 25.60 midpoint pivot show. Place the actual bid two cents above the target, at 25.62, and use a stop-loss at 25.54.  If it's hit, that would imply more downside to 24.99, where you could try again. Use at 25.02 bid, stop 24.93.  The pattern is delicate enough that either pivot should produce a bounce within a few cents of the projected low. ______ UPDATE (July 18, 2:27 a.m.): SLW has forged higher, negating our buying plan. I'd prefer to buy on weakness, but we should be prepared nonetheless to catch it on-the-fly. _______ UPDATE (July 22, 12:05 a.m.): A pullback from just above the two peaks could yield the buying opportunity we've been looking for. If interested, query me in the chat room during market hours. _______ UPDATE (July 23, 7:16 p.m.): The stock appears to be rolling over. If so, plan on bottom-fishing the midpoint pivot shown, at 25.97, with a stop-loss as tight as 5 cents.  If it's hit, though, expect more slippage to its D sibling, 25.06.

S&P Volatility Index (VXX) Is the One to Watch!

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Of all the targets I've touted or tweeted, the one at 25.43 in VXX is potentially the most useful and significant, since it could mark a possible bear-market low in S&P 500 volatility.  Logic strongly suggests that if volatility is about to reverse and move higher, this would be coincident with a fall, possibly steep and prolonged, in the stock market.  I've stuck with the target through several sharp rallies, but it has always looked too clear and compelling to doubt. It still looks picture-perfect, and I therefore expect it to work precisely.

VXX – S&P VIX Short-Term (Last:27.27)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Targets as well-defined and compelling as the one shown rarely disappoint. What this implies is that S&P 500 volatility, which has been in a multi-year bear market, is about to reverse and move higher. If so, it is logical that the stock market will make an important top that is more or less coincident. Traders and investors should position accordingly.  If VXX’s expected bounce from 25.43 is sharp because the broad averages have taken a steep dive that day, take it as a sign that a powerful correction, or possibly even a bear market, has begun, and that ‘buying the dip’ could therefore prove to be a dangerous strategy.