Wednesday, July 23, 2014

TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:115.40)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

This is a good vehicle for playing the huge rally in T-Bonds that I expect over the next couple of years. I will have more to say about this in an upcoming commentary, but for now let's focus on possible trades to leverage it.  For starters, I'll recommend buying the September 20/August 1  118-strike call calendar spread 16 times for 0.52, contingent on the underlying ETF trading 115 or higher.  If it falls below that price, lower your spread bid by a penny for each 7-cent drop in TLT. (Thus, with TLT trading at 114.93, you would be 0.51 bid for the spread.) Our goal will be to roll the short side of our spread to a later date as each series that we are short expires.  Ideally, if TLT continues to move higher, we will take in enough premium between now and September 20 to more than offset the cost of the long September 20 calls we will continue to hold. We can also parlay any profits into bigger spreads at still-higher strikes, increasing our leverage with TLT's expected ascent. Please let me know in the chat room how you're faring bidding for the spread, since we can adjust our price on-the-fly if we need to pay more. Also let me know if it comes too easily -- presumably off a spread order @ 0.52 -- since that would imply we're overpaying. ______ UPDATE (8:58 p.m. EDT):  The spread stayed just out of range Wednesday, but you should keep trying. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:25 p.m.):  The stock opened on a gap lower, making the calendar spread an easy buy for 0.44 (as reported by a subscriber in the chat room). I'll use that as a cost basis for 16 spreads, but keep trying, since you may be able

Making Hay While the Sun Shines

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

I'm not sure whether it's the effect of solar flare and/or sun spots, Mercury out-of-retrograde or perhaps a mild remission of my incipient senile dementia, but Hidden Pivot targets in nearly all vehicles that I track have been working with amazing accuracy lately.  Even crude oil, for which we usually allow 21 cents of leeway at projected highs and lows, has been turning within less than a dime of Hidden Pivot targets disseminated in the chat room or via touts.  If you're keen on making hay with these forecasts while the sun is shining, check out actionable touts for EUR/USD, E-Mini S&P and GDXJ in today's list.  To me, at least, the target given for each of these vehicles looks like it absolutely cannot miss.

GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:42.36)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

In the previous tout, all my targets were given in green, implying higher prices are coming. However, since my gut feeling is that August Gold is about to relapse down to the 1278.20 (or alternatively, 1271.70) target given in the current GCQ14 tout, you should hold firmly in mind the bearish, 40.42 target shown (see inset) for this vehicle just in case. GDXJ will of course have a great opportunity to turn higher from 42.55, the midpoint HP support here, and you will risk little bottom-fishing there with a stop-loss of perhaps 6 cents. But if the stop is hit, expect more slippage to 40.42, which also could be bottom-fished aggressively with an absurdly tight stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (July 23, 9:03 p.m. EDT):  Today's slippage to 41.82 was not exactly a sign of robust health. As as result, the 40.42 target is in play. It can be bought aggressively with a tight stop if the opportunity should arise.

EURUSD – Euro/USD (Last:1.33950)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

I haven't tracked currencies that closely, but because they tend to move very precisely to Hidden Pivot targets, traders should consider exploiting them whenever possible. Notice how EUR/USD has broken beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1.34841 after noodling around near that pivot for a few hours on Thursday. This suggests that it is bound for D=1.34197, at least.  You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks.  Notice as well that there are two slightly higher possibilities for point 'A'.  The correction targets they yield lie, respectively, at 1.34114 and, worst case, 1.33992.  I expect these numbers to work very precisely, so use them in whatever way suits you best.  Note as well that a last-gasp rally to p=1.34738 after EUR/USD has fallen a bit would be short-able. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:35 p.m. EDT):  Yesterday's short-squeeze feint topped precisely at a midpoint Hidden Pivot (see inset, a new chart) that was originally support but which is now resistance. This price action confirms the pattern we've chosen as well as its 'D' target at 1.34197. At least one subscriber has confirmed getting short in the chat room.  _______ UPDATE (July 27, 10:43 p.m.):  Friday's low occurred at 1.34206 -- 0.00009 above our 1.34197 target.  Shorts should have covered there, but if you were able to bottom-fish the low and catch a piece of the 144-tick rally that ensued, please let me know in the chat room and so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (July 30, 2:43 p.m.): The futures have breached the lowest of the targets I'd provide from the lesser charts. This implies that a bigger-picture target at 1.32091 is in play. The chart(see inset, a new one) shows this.