August 2014

To Go Boldly Where Way Too Many Have Gone Before…

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Even if we give the bull market the benefit of the doubt it surely deserves, it's still tempting to place a longshot bet on a collapse from these levels, especially on a Friday. To that end, I've identified two Hidden Targets in the E-Mini S&Ps that merit the consideration of risk-takers, including those willing to go boldly where far too many to count have gone before.

SIU14 – September Silver (Last:19.505)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The futures came down yesterday almost as sharply as they had gone up.  Although this did not invalidate the bearish target at 19.100 given here previously, it generated a promising impulse leg on the hourly chart that should temper our bearishness, at least for the time being.  What's needed now is a follow-through rally -- a c-d leg, in Hidden Pivot parlance -- that pushes easily past the midpoint resistance (and thence the D target).  I've sketched this hypothetically, but all we can do in the meantime is keep our fingers crossed.

GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1289.20)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Yesterday's high occurred to-the-tick at an obvious Hidden Pivot target, and although we might have wished for a push at least slightly past it to imply more strength ahead, it was not to be.  Bulls will have another chance to show their mettle during this correction.  Specifically, and the best we might hope for, would be a bounce from the 1287.30 midpoint pivot shown. You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks, but brace for more downside to D=1282.50 if the stop is hit.

ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1990.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Bulls have been taking the measure of the 2000 barrier all week, but we shouldn't assume that this ostensibly daunting obstacle will stymie them for long.  More likely is that they will muster at least the energy needed to push up to the 2009.00 target shown.  It can be shorted with a very tight stop, preferably using the 'camouflage' technique, but be aware that a lesser Hidden Pivot at 2005.50 could also show tradable stopping power. A three-tick stop-loss should suffice for the latter, but you'll be on your own if it fills. For starters, though, if you've risked three ticks initially, you'll need to take a partial profit if the trade goes nine ticks your way. If you've shorted only a single contract, a trailing stop would be appropriate.  Alternatively, a plunge touching 1981.25 would turn the hourly chart bearish, auguring a squall or worse.

Lunatic Stocks Must Catch Fire for Market to Go Higher

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

The leadership of lunatic stocks such as Google, Netflix and Priceline is needed to power the broad averages higher, and that's why a key support in the latter must hold.  If not, PCLN is likely to fall a further $35, presumably delaying the stock market's ascent to fabulous new highs. Check out today's tout for Priceline for precise benchmarks, the most immediate of which will be in play -- and potentially short-able -- Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

CLV14 – October Crude (Last:95.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

October Crude's breach of the midpoint support two weeks ago was predictive of the weakness that followed, as well as of the success of shorts initiated belatedly on rallies to the red line. The 91.43 target has been in play all along, although the squiggly C-D leg of this pattern suggests it has been a struggle for bears to get there.  Even so, your trading bias should remain bearish until D is reached, at which point you should consider reversing short positions and go long. Crude continues to deliver precise hits relative to our old target benchmark of 21 cents, but I would still advise using a 'camouflage' strategy to initiate trades at implied swing points, rather than trading against the trend with a very tight stop of perhaps 6-8 cents. ______ UPDATE (Sep 3, 9:20 p.m. EDT): Let's see if yesterday's wilding spree can get legs. From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, the move would start to look interesting on a print just above the 96.88 peak shown. Please note that a pullback from just above that peak could set up a 'camouflage' buying opportunity on the lesser charts.

PCLN – Priceline (Last:1234.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

If the lunatic stocks are about to lead the broad averages higher, we should see Priceline bounce sharply from the 1259.21 midpoint support shown. Yesterday's low came within 38 cents of this Hidden Pivot -- close enough for the target to be considered fulfilled. Any further slippage, however, and its 'D' sibling at 1224.45 will be in play. This would imply that the stock market itself is likely to go nowhere, or possibly down, in the days ahead.  The stock would become shortable on a decisive breach of the red line (i.e., a breach of perhaps 0.30-0.60 cents), but if you plan on getting short for the potential $35 ride south, you should initiate the trade on the 5-minute chart or less, using a corrective pattern that would subject you to no more risk theoretically than perhaps 0.15 per share. If the trade works and you are still short when 1224.45 is reached or closely approached, reverse the position and buy at the target aggressively using a tight stop. 

PCLN – Priceline (Last:1277.88)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

PCLN will need to bounce from the 1275.65 midpoint pivot shown to reassure bulls that the selloff from Monday's high isn't about to get legs.  The pivot can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tights 0.20, but brace for more downside to D=1264.51 if it gets tagged. Like AAPL, this stock has failed to reach an important target with its most recent thrust.  The target lies at 1358.18, but PCLN went no higher than 1329.90.  This is missing by a mile, and we should pay close attention to any weakness that follows in its wake -- particularly to minor abcd downtrends that exceed their 'd' targets, since that would be warning that the selling is picking up strength.

Bellwether Apple Sputtering Out

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

The lunatic stocks have been pretty docile lately, making it impossible for the broad averages to move higher by their wonted leaps and bounds. Particularly troubling is that Apple -- no lunatic stock, but most surely a reliable bellwether -- has turned lower after narrowly failing to reach a 103.07 rally target I'd flagged.  This bears watching, since a breach of the corrective target noted in today's tout could hint of more trouble immediately ahead.

ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1996.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

At this rate, it may be Christmas before my very modest (and very short-able) rally target at 2008.00 is achieved.  True, there is no actual, bullish buying to make it happen, only demand from short-covering bears that has been anemic lately. But the corrections have been shallow as well, keeping shorts pinned on the ropes.  Nevertheless, so that we don't miss an important downturn while we're busy getting bored to death, I'll suggest setting a screen alert at 1992.00, which is where the hourly chart would be warning of possible trouble. _______ UPDATE (Aug 27, 6:29 p.m. EDT): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.