Tuesday, August 5, 2014

It’s Only a Game

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Today's tout for the E-Mini S&P psychoanalyzes the market while trying to be three steps ahead of it. This is always risky business, akin to predicting the intentions of a serial killer based on his menu preferences at some Greek diner. Right or wrong, though, remember that it's only a silly game.

TOL – Toll Brothers (Last:34.67)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I was asked on Twitter where the shares of this luxury-home builder are headed. My answer is to 30.60, at least -- implying it should be shorted first, then bottom-fished with a tight stop ahead of the expected bounce at the target. This information seemed worth sharing because the target and the pattern that produced it look so high-quality to me. So much for the housing sector. ______ UPDATE (August 17): Friday's bull-trap squeeze to 34.36 on the opening bar was not quite close enough to the 34.50 pivot I'd suggested shorting for a potential ride down to 30.60.  The relapse to 33.63 would have given us great odds, but since it's past, so is our best opportunity.  However, because the downside target remains valid, I'll make this one catch-as-catch-can. (Assuming no one got short on Friday.)  If you let me know of a fill in the chat room, I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ________ UPDATE (August 18 10:03 a.m.): The stock is now in the grip of a wicked short-squeeze that targets 34.74.  Short there, by all means, but don't risk more than 8 cents on the initial stop-loss.  (30 min, A=33.25 on 8/13).

GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1308.80)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Yesterday's downtrend held above the 1286.20 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown, but if it gives way look for the selling to persist at least until 1274.00 is reached.  I'd recommended a tightly stopped long from 1286.30 in the chat room yesterday, and although the pivot on which the recommendation was based remains viable, bottom-fishing there will not be so attractive this morning. Any slippage below the pivot would favor a bearish bias, but you can also bid 1274.20, stop 1273.80, ahead of a possible bounce.  Alternatively, it would take a push above 1295.70 to energize bulls.  Thereupon, a 1304.40 short-term rally target would be in play.  ______ UPDATE (10:20 a.m.): For once, it is bullion that leads the lunatic fringe, up $23.70 at the moment. The rally tripped the 1309.80 'buy' signal, on the 60-minute chart, of A=1259.60 on 6/17. Will it get to p=1331.75, let alone to D=1375.70? Place your bets, folks!

ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1910.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

DaBoyz have been able to manipulate the futures only four points lower Monday night. Presumably they would welcome more selling, since that would help exhaust supply at lower prices, which in turn would set the stage for the all-too-familiar short-squeeze opening that has driven this bull market from one level to the next over the last five years. My guess is that stocks will open firm on Tuesday, but it remains to be seen whether the strength will be sufficient to spook bears into a short-covering panic. If the future have only risen by perhaps six to eight points in the first 20 minutes, though, look out below, since that will mean that bears aren't taking the bait -- at least not this time. Alternatively, a rally to new record highs in the weeks ahead would probably wipe out the last, and most daring, of the bears that remain. For their part, bulls would be trapped as never before. How high would the stock market have to go before they are "all in"?  In plain fact, they already are "all-in" -- if not individually, then by way of institutional proxies such as CALPERS, Federal Retirement Thrift, Metlife, TIAA-CREF et al. ______ UPDATE (2:12 p.m. EDT):  The Dow has fallen 200 points today so far after a weak opening. Look out below, indeed!